Brent boosted by geopolitics, jumps over $90
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Brent crude hit levels around $91 per barrel on Thursday, the highest since October 2023, with markets getting more anxious about increasing geopolitical risks.
Why it matters: After months of being hemmed in by fears of soft global demand, the benchmark added nearly $2 per barrel during the session, inching closer to the psychologically-charged $100 level.
- And when oil's market value rises, gasoline prices at the pump usually follow, posing yet another challenge to inflation-weary consumers, and a president seeking reelection in November.
What they're saying: JPMorgan's notes there's a possibility for Brent to reach $100 this year, if no actions are taken to offset the loss of Russian supply.
- "At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia's actions could ...reach mid-$90 by May, and close to $100 by September, keeping pressure on the U.S. administration in the run-up to elections," JPMorgan notes.
- The U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday said that it will not be awarding oil supply contracts for refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in August and September due to high prices.
The big picture: Growing geopolitical tensions have only acted as a catalyst for market fluctuations.
- The recent Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, a potential widening of the Middle East conflict after the recent attack on the Iranian embassy, and oil shipment delays suggest there's more upside in oil prices.
- In addition, prices have been buoyed by OPEC+ maintaining the production cuts, along with reduced exports from Mexico that are curtailing needed supply.
And it's not just crude on the rise.
- Considered to be a safe haven for investors, gold is also touching an all-time high, reaching $2,307.6 a troy ounce on Thursday, signaling that jittery investors are looking for safety, especially as stocks buckle.
What we're watching: How commodities continue to react with global risks, solid demand and production cuts in a geopolitical chess match where every move counts.
