The Fed's inflation fight is starting to feel like a forever war
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New data is calling into question whether the U.S. economy will return to the pre-pandemic benchmark of 2% inflation anytime soon.
Why it matters: The so-called "last mile" of the Fed's inflation fight was always going to be hard. But at least a few economists think 3% could well become the new normal.
Driving the news: February's consumer price figures released yesterday showed that inflation rose 3.2% in the 12 months that ended in February — showing how the road to 2% is getting increasingly bumpy and unpredictable.
- "Inflation was able to decelerate from 9% to 3% rather quickly, but the path to the Fed's 2% target may take more time than expected," according to Skyler Weinand, CIO of Dallas-based Regan Capital.
Follow the money: Consumers are struggling with higher rates making record credit card debt more expensive to carry, while mortgage rates north of 7% are putting home ownership aspirations out of reach.
- "Consumers want to grow capital and they don't want to spend on credit cards, but they don't have any choice … credit cards are the most used solution for any kind of credit need," Rodney Williams, co-founder of SoLo Funds, tells Axios in a recent interview.
- "Once upon a time there was the person who didn't have a credit card, that's no longer true."
Reality check: Even with interest rates that will likely remain higher for longer than most anticipated, the economy is still expanding.
- Higher wages, combined with a booming stock market, are giving consumers the incentive to open their wallets on just about everything.
- That might be to their detriment, given that strong demand is playing a key role in keeping prices elevated.
What they're saying: Lara Rhame, chief U.S. economist at FS Investments, thinks that we're living in a "3% world" until further notice.
- With inflation durable and jobs plentiful, she tells Axios that she's expecting the Fed to perform three or fewer "surgical" rate cuts this year.
- The Fed is "going to err on the side of caution in terms of cutting too quickly," Rhame says in an interview.
