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Expand chart
Data: Online SurveyMonkey poll (margin of error: ±2.5 percentage points). Chart: Axios Visuals

In a SurveyMonkey poll for Axios taking a very early look at a theoretical 2024 field, Pete Buttigieg tops a list of Democrats, with a slight advantage over Kamala Harris.

Why it matters: A poll this early can only tell you so much. But what's striking is that none of the top seven Democratic candidates are heterosexual white men — an indicator of growing diversity in the party.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the top choice who didn't run in the current race. She will turn 35 years old, the Constitution's minimum age to assume office as president, a month before the Nov. 5, 2024, election.

  • Speculation is building that she could run in 2024, taking the torch from Bernie Sanders as standard bearer for the party's progressive wing.

By the numbers: AOC is the top choice (30%) among voters 18–29, Harris leads among those 30–44 (30%), and Buttigieg leads all older age groups, increasing his advantage as voters get older.

  • Oprah Winfrey is the No. 2 choice for the youngest group of voters, while Amy Klobuchar is the second-most popular option for voters 65+.

Between the lines: A number of older candidates in the 2020 field weren't listed as options, but received write-in votes, including Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg.

Methodology: The SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted among U.S. adults ages 18 and older. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data has been weighted for age, race, sex, education and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over, including 2016 vote.

  • The survey was conducted Dec. 14–17 among 4,436 adults, including 1,854 Republicans/leaners and 1,769 Democrats/leaners. The modeled error estimate for this survey is ±2.5 percentage points.

Go deeper

FBI, Homeland Security warn of increasing threat to Capitol

Photo: Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security predict violent domestic extremists attacks will increase in 2021, according to a report reviewed by Axios.

Driving the news: The joint report says an unidentified group of extremists discussed plans to take control of the Capitol and "remove Democratic lawmakers" on or about March 4. The House canceled its plans for Thursday votes as word of the possible threats spread.

17 mins ago - World

Pope Francis set to make first papal visit to Iraq amid possible turmoil

Data: Vatican News; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Pope Francis is forging ahead with the first papal trip to Iraq despite new coronavirus outbreaks and fears of instability.

The big picture: The March 5–8 visit is intended to reassure Christians in Iraq who were violently persecuted under the Islamic State. Francis also hopes to further ties with Shiite Muslims, AP notes.

"Neanderthal thinking": Biden slams states lifting mask mandates

States that are relaxing coronavirus restrictions are making "a big mistake," President Biden told reporters on Wednesday, adding: "The last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking."

Driving the news: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said Wednesday he will end all coronavirus restrictions via executive order, although some businesses are continuing to ask patrons to wear face masks. Mississippi is lifting its mask mandate for all counties Wednesday, per Gov. Tate Reeves (R).