Watch: A conversation on the forecast for M&A in 2024

The big picture: On Wednesday, October 4, Axios business and technology reporter Kia Kokalitcheva hosted virtual conversations looking at the predictions, trends and expectations shaping the landscape for M&A heading into 2024.

• Guests included Bain & Company partner and head of global and Americas mergers & acquisitions Les Baird and Leerink Partners senior managing director Robert Minear.

Les Baird explained how this year's M&A downturn in particular compares to prior dealmaking downturns.

• On recent trends in M&A corporate markets: "It's interesting, we have not in the last 25 years seen three years of sequential M&A corporate markets down in a row. This will mark the second year of downturn…We saw relative to prior downturns a very fast contraction. There's been some stability here in the M&A markets. I think the buzzword of the day remains uncertainty, uncertainty in and around inflation, uncertainty in and around the depth of a potential recession, and when we might see a bit of a correction."

Robert Minear said that transaction activity has been slow largely due to a substantial bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers.

• On buyers' valuation appetite today compared to the last two years: "Buyers are always very quick to reset their mark to a valuation level significantly lower than it has been in say the last two years, sellers have been slower to come around to that. I think what you're beginning to see is some of that open up a little bit, there are some transactions that have started to get done, and it certainly feels like the momentum is shifting more towards transaction volume really picking up, and certainly into 2024 a lot more activity planned driven by the narrowing of that spread and also a lot more pressure on the funds to deploy capital."

Sponsored content:

In a View from the Top sponsored segment, Cooley partner Kevin Cooper shared an optimistic outlook for dealmaking in 2024.

• "I would say through the first three quarters of the year, the numbers out there in the market are about 25% off of where they were for this time last year, and we're probably right around half of the peak numbers we saw in 2021, if you can believe that. But the good news is that in Q3, it really does feel like things have started to pick up and there have been some really interesting deal announcements out there. Q3 was actually about 17% busier this year compared to last year."

Thank you to Cooley for sponsoring this event.