Aug 17, 2023 - Economy

Yields soar after Fed minutes reinforce inflation risks

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Interest rates have soared in recent days, suggesting higher long-term borrowing costs for households and businesses.

By the numbers: As of noon Eastern, the yield on the U.S. 1o-year Treasury bond was 4.3%, the highest in 15 years.

  • The latest catalyst for the push higher was the release of minutes from the Fed's July 25-26 policy meeting, which suggested that the central bank might raise its key rate higher still.
  • Nearly all signs point to a resilient economy that's remained so, despite a rate-hiking campaign that has lasted for more than a year.

Driving the news: Per the minutes, most Fed officials "continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy," with inflation still above its 2% target and the job market still tight.

  • Fed members fretted about a slew of scenarios that could lead to "more persistent elevated inflation or an unanchoring of inflation expectations"
  • Those risks included an abrupt turn in supply chain improvements and "favorable commodity price trends," alongside the possibility that economic demand might not slow "by an amount sufficient to restore price stability over time."

Of note: The bond selloff (which has pushed yields up) in the U.S. is playing out around the world — bond yields in the U.K. and Germany are also charging higher.

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