Moon risks rise as U.S.-China don't communicate in space
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The chilly relationship between the U.S. and China on Earth could raise safety risks in space and the specter of competition on the Moon as both nations aim to send people to the lunar surface in the coming years.
Why it matters: China and the U.S. — the two most dominant players in space today — do not generally collaborate on space research and exploration, and have limited communication in orbit and beyond.
- But both nations are separately sending missions to the Moon.
- NASA expects its astronauts will be back on the surface of the Moon as early as 2025, and China has plans for its taikonauts to land on the lunar surface by around 2030.
What's happening: The Chinese military is refusing to use established communications channels that could help to prevent an unintended crisis on Earth. Recent close calls between U.S. and Chinese crafts at sea and in the air underscore the risk.
- Lack of transparency into activities has framed the U.S-China relationship in space for decades, with some key exceptions including coordinating orbiters at Mars and NASA collaborating with China during one of the nation's robotic Moon missions.
- The Chinese government has a fundamentally different way of engaging in the world that makes open communication difficult, Dean Cheng, a China analyst, tells Axios. The government is "not accustomed to thinking of alliance structures and cooperation," he added.
- The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., didn't respond to a request for comment.
The big picture: "U.S.-China space relations have never been warm," Cheng said. "But they are becoming more openly competitive. Because we — the U.S. — are delayed in getting back to the Moon."
- NASA will likely miss its 2025 Artemis landing date, with technical and budgetary delays pushing the first crewed landing to later in the decade. China, however, "will put a human crew on the Moon by 2030," Cheng said. "If that is their intent, then it will happen."
What to watch: Communication could be particularly important on the lunar surface because China and the U.S. are both planning to land missions in the same part of the Moon, at the lunar south pole.
- While those initial landing zones will likely be widely separated, future missions could lead to new questions about space traffic management, communications satellites and even the primary language used in those activities at the Moon.
- "You could imagine that both sides start building longer-term presences — colonies, if you will," Cheng said.
- "How does that work? ... Do we engage in trade with each other, trading water and other resources?"
