Updated Feb 2, 2023
Charted: Punxsutawney "Skill"
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Over the past 75 years, Punxsutawney Phil has correctly predicted whether there will be an early spring 69% of the time, according to an Axios analysis of NOAA data.
Why it matters: Over the long run, Phil is fairly accurate. It’s high time to vindicate Phil and let his record shine!
Details: Past analyses have slighted Phil by either including fairly few years of data, analyzing the U.S. as a whole, or being very generous as to their definition of an early spring.
We defined an early spring as one that’s significantly warmer — by one standard deviation — than the average of the previous 30 years.
- Phil was accurate 64% of the time over a 25-year period and 57% of the time over a 10-year period.
Editor's note: This article was originally published on Jan. 28.
