Nov 3, 2022 - Economy

NRF sees holiday sales growing 6% to 8%

Illustration of the bottom of a Christmas tree made out of cash without gifts

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The National Retail Federation projects that holiday sales will grow between 6% and 8% compared with last year, or to between nearly $943 billion and $960 billion, said Matt Shay, the trade association's CEO.

  • That contrasts with nearly $890 billion in retail sales last year on record growth of 13.5%.

Why it matters: If NRF numbers prove out, it's an indicator that consumers are willing to at least maintain spending when factoring into inflation.

  • The trade association's projection helps set expectations for the all-important holiday season, when retailers are said to go into the black.

Of note: NRF says it looks at consumer spending between Nov. 1 and ends Dec. 31. Its projections exclude auto, gas and restaurants.

Details: E-commerce sales specifically are expected to grow between 10% and 12% or between nearly $263 billion and almost $268 billion. year-over-year, up from $239 billion last year.

  • While inflation and rising interest rates will impact holiday spending, consumers are willing to take on extra credit or debt to support spending, Shay says.
  • Importantly, they will be looking for bargains to offset the rise in prices, he adds.

Meanwhile: Seasonal hiring is expected to be between 450,000 to 600,000 versus about 670,000 last year.

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