Sep 27, 2022 - Economy

"Forceful deceleration" in home prices: Growth cooling off

Data: S&P Global; Chart: Axios Visuals

Home price jumps are losing altitude.

Driving the news: Year-over-year home price growth declined by 2.3 percentage points from June to July, the largest one-month drop in the more than 27-year history of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.

  • “Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” Craig Lazzara, managing director of S&P DJI, said in a statement.

Yes, but: Prices still rose 15.8% in July, compared with a year earlier.

  • Tampa (31.8%), Miami (31.7%), Dallas (24.7%), Charlotte (23.6%) and Atlanta (22.8%) were the top five hottest markets in year-over-year price growth.

What we're watching: How rising mortgage rates — which have spiked further since the latest Case-Shiller data was collected — affect prices.

  • "7% or close to it is the new 30yr fixed rate reality for now," Mortgage News Daily reported.
  • Capital Economics property economist Sam Hall wrote Tuesday that he's expecting a "sustained decline over the next 12 months" and "we think it is only a matter of time before month-on-month price growth also turns negative."
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