Sep 12, 2022 - Economy

Holiday shopping spending growth expected to taper off

Year-over-year holiday retail sales growth
Data: Mastercard; Chart: Axios Visuals

Holiday spending growth is poised to trail last year's big bounce as customers seek out deals, Mastercard SpendingPulse projected Monday.

By the numbers: Holiday shoppers are expected to spend 7.1% more this year than they did in 2021, which would fall short of last year's 8.5% increase. The projection is also not adjusted for the four-decade high in inflation, suggesting that retail spending could suffer a decline in real terms.

  • “This holiday season, consumers may find themselves looking for ways to navigate the inflationary environment — from searching for deals to making trade-offs that allow for extra room in their gift-giving budgets,” Mastercard Economics Institute chief U.S. economist Michelle Meyer said in a statement.

The bottom line: Facing inventory challenges and competition from travel and entertainment destinations, retailers will be working hard to lure customers.

  • “This holiday retail season is bound to be far more promotional than the last,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO of Saks, in a statement.
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