Holiday shopping spending growth expected to taper off

Holiday spending growth is poised to trail last year's big bounce as customers seek out deals, Mastercard SpendingPulse projected Monday.

By the numbers: Holiday shoppers are expected to spend 7.1% more this year than they did in 2021, which would fall short of last year's 8.5% increase. The projection is also not adjusted for the four-decade high in inflation, suggesting that retail spending could suffer a decline in real terms.

• “This holiday season, consumers may find themselves looking for ways to navigate the inflationary environment — from searching for deals to making trade-offs that allow for extra room in their gift-giving budgets,” Mastercard Economics Institute chief U.S. economist Michelle Meyer said in a statement.

The bottom line: Facing inventory challenges and competition from travel and entertainment destinations, retailers will be working hard to lure customers.

• “This holiday retail season is bound to be far more promotional than the last,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO of Saks, in a statement.