Jun 9, 2022 - Economy

Picking good economic forecasters is impossible

Felix Salmon

A magic 8 ball with but designed as the earth — Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

If you can forecast the economy with greater accuracy than anybody else, you're going to be in high demand from investors looking for edge in the markets.

The catch: There's always someone who got it more right than anybody else. But it's never the same person this year as it was last year.

How it works: According to the FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, the best forecasters of the U.S. economy were:

In 2019: HSBC; National Bank of Canada; and Danske Bank.
In 2020: Société Générale; Raiffeisen Research; and Julius Baer.
In 2021: Goldman Sachs; BMO Capital Markets; and TD Economics.

The bottom line: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Picking good economic forecasters is impossible

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