President Biden delivers remarks in Portsmouth, N.H. on April 19. Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
The Cook Political Report shifted eight House races toward Republicans in the nonpartisan prognosticator's latest ratings published Wednesday.
Why it matters: The moves reflect an increasingly tough midterm cycle for Democrats — who are panicking over a potential electoral tsunami this November, Axios' Alayna Treene reports.
- "That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising 'reach opportunities,'" per the Cook Political Report.
- President Biden's approval rating hit its lowest levels last month.
State of play: Republicans need to gain just five seats in 2022 to regain control of the House.
- The ratings now have 27 Democratic-held seats in the "toss up" category "or worse"— meaning "lean Republican" or "likely Republican," Dave Wasserman, Cook's House editor, tweeted.
- That's compared to 12 GOP-held seats that are in the "toss up" category or "worse," per Wasserman.
- Three House races featuring Democratic incumbents moved from "lean Democrat" to "toss up," per the new changes.
Thought bubble from Axios' Andrew Solender: The rating shift bolsters the House GOP’s increasing confidence about — and its willingness to funnel resources to —districts that President Biden won by healthy margins in 2020, including NY-19 and NV-03.
Cook's moves ...
- Ind.-01: Likely D to Lean D
- Nev.-03: Lead D to toss up
- Nev.-04: Lean D to toss up
- N.J.-03: Solid D to Likely D
- N.Y.-04: Solid D to Likely D
- N.Y.-19: Likely D to Lean D
- N.C.-01: Likely D to Lean D
- Va.-07: Lean D to toss up
Go deeper ... Dems air anxieties after Biden's brutal NBC poll