Apr 20, 2022 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report moves 8 House races toward GOP

U.S. President Biden delivers remarks in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, United States on April 19, 2022

President Biden delivers remarks in Portsmouth, N.H. on April 19. Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The Cook Political Report shifted eight House races toward Republicans in the nonpartisan prognosticator's latest ratings published Wednesday.

Why it matters: The moves reflect an increasingly tough midterm cycle for Democrats — who are panicking over a potential electoral tsunami this November, Axios' Alayna Treene reports.

  • "That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising 'reach opportunities,'" per the Cook Political Report.
  • President Biden's approval rating hit its lowest levels last month.

State of play: Republicans need to gain just five seats in 2022 to regain control of the House.

  • The ratings now have 27 Democratic-held seats in the "toss up" category "or worse"— meaning "lean Republican" or "likely Republican," Dave Wasserman, Cook's House editor, tweeted.
  • That's compared to 12 GOP-held seats that are in the "toss up" category or "worse," per Wasserman.
  • Three House races featuring Democratic incumbents moved from "lean Democrat" to "toss up," per the new changes.

Thought bubble from Axios' Andrew Solender: The rating shift bolsters the House GOP’s increasing confidence about — and its willingness to funnel resources to —districts that President Biden won by healthy margins in 2020, including NY-19 and NV-03.

Cook's moves ...

  • Ind.-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • Nev.-03: Lead D to toss up
  • Nev.-04: Lean D to toss up
  • N.J.-03: Solid D to Likely D
  • N.Y.-04: Solid D to Likely D
  • N.Y.-19: Likely D to Lean D
  • N.C.-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • Va.-07: Lean D to toss up

Go deeper ... Dems air anxieties after Biden's brutal NBC poll

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