Dec 6, 2021 - Economy & Business

What to expect from Friday's Consumer Price Index report

Illustration of a large dollar bill sign balloon being held by a man who is floating slightly off the ground.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The latest measure of inflation is set for release Friday, as market watchers continue to process last week’s confusing jobs report and try to game out the economic impact of the latest coronavirus variant.

Why it matters: Americans, politicians, and regulators are laser-focused on price gains picking up steam and impacting the overall economic recovery.

By the numbers: Consensus estimates among economists call for the core Consumer Price Index, which measures the price of goods and services excluding food and energy, to have risen by 0.4% in November from October.

  • That compares to the 0.6% hike seen in October, and September’s 0.2% uptick.

What they’re saying: A group of top economists have ramped up their inflation expectations in recent months, and downgraded their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2021, according to a new NABE Outlook survey released Monday.

  • "Nearly three-fourths of respondents — 71% — anticipate that the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, the change in the core PCE price index, will not cool down to or below the Fed’s target of 2% year-over-year until the second half of 2023 or later," said NABE vice president Julia Coronado, in a statement.

The bottom line: The Fed has already reversed course on its stance that higher prices would be temporary and that admission may change the central bank's view on its policies.

Go deeper