Nov 1, 2021 - Economy

The economic indicators we're watching this week

Kate Marino

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C. — Jerome Powell speaks during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., in September. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Jerome Powell takes the stage again Wednesday afternoon for the Federal Open Market Committee’s press conference.

The big picture: There will be details of the upcoming taper, of course (boring!) — but we all want to hear more about the Fed’s evolving views on rate liftoff.

Over the last month or two as inflation trends have gotten a little stickier, markets like short-term Treasuries and fed funds futures have begun pricing in a rate hike next year.

Powell may (or may not) wish he had an inkling of Friday’s employment numbers when he addresses the nation — as those figures will show whether the persistent labor gridlock is starting to loosen.

By the numbers: Consensus estimates are for 437,500 new jobs created in October, according to FactSet, up from 194,000 the month before.

The last jobs report, for September, showed that labor force participation ticked down — at a time when only half the pandemic-induced reduction to the labor force has been recouped.
I’ll be zeroing in on the participation rate for women, which has cratered compared to men, likely due to care-taking responsibilities.

Go deeper: Biden talks supply chain issues with world leaders on last day of G20

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The economic indicators we're watching this week

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