Oct 13, 2021 - Economy

Most community bank execs expect housing market crash

Illustration of a wave of money overtaking a house.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The housing market has been on a tear. And 78% of community bank executives think it will "crash" in the next five years, according to a new survey out this morning.

The big picture: While execs signaled caution on the housing market — where median prices are up 15% in the last year — nearly all of them (95%) are optimistic about local economic conditions over the next year.

  • The survey, conducted by Wakefield Research in August, included 100 community banking executives and 50 credit union executives who manage between $500 million and $50 billion in assets.

Meanwhile: Local banks say they played a big role in the pandemic recovery.

  • The bank leaders indicate that on average, about a quarter of their business customers would have shuttered over the last year and a half, without their assistance.

Watch this space: The transition to digital has been sluggish for community banks.

  • About 99% of execs acknowledged their institutions haven’t fully embraced digital banking — and 44% say one reason is that their leadership doesn’t believe in it.
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