Sep 27, 2021 - Economy

Pandemic concerns change economic growth forecast

Dan Primack

Illustration of a magnifying glass examining a tiny dollar bill — Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Business economists have tempered their 2021 growth expectations, cutting nearly a point off their annual GDP forecast since earlier this year, according to the NABE outlook survey released today.

Why it matters: This reflects increased concerns over the pandemic's impact on the economy, particularly due to the spread of Delta and other variants. Panelists said that a faster vaccine rollout could improve their outlooks.

By the numbers: NABE survey panelists project 5.7% real GDP growth for 2021, which is down from the 6.5% mark in May.

Anything above 4.8% would still be the highest annual GDP increase since 1984.
Panelists expect 2022 growth to be 4.2%, down from 4.4% in May.
Labor market expectations remained unchanged from May, with two-thirds of panelists still expecting non-farm payrolls to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of next year.

Sorry, pols: Only a small percentage of panelists felt that federal action or inaction on a large spending bill would have a significant impact on short-term growth, but most expect sharp inflation growth in 2021 and moderate inflation growth in 2022.

Add Axios on Google

Pandemic concerns change economic growth forecast

What to read next