A jobs report for the ages
Expectations are growing for Friday's nonfarm payrolls report to be a big one, with some economists expecting it could show the U.S. added jobs in April at a pace not seen since last year's record-setting hiring spree in May and June.
Why it matters: While it is not expected to match or exceed June's 4.8 million, some economists believe we could see more than 2 million jobs added, compounding the momentum from March when American employers added 916,000 jobs.
By the numbers: Overall, economists are forecasting 977,500 jobs were added in April, per FactSet. But with vaccinations increasing and real-time data showing business openings picking up and hiring taking off, economists are getting more bullish.
- Last week's initial jobless claims reading marked the third straight week jobless claims were below 600,000, their lowest since early 2020.
What we're hearing: "We added nearly one million jobs in March. Since then vaccinations have risen markedly in the United States. COVID cases and deaths fallen. People are getting back to work safely," Claudia Sahm, senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute, tells Axios.
- Sahm, creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator, is expecting a net 2 million jobs will be added during the month.
The increase in bookings at restaurants and bars over the past two months is "reminiscent" of May and June 2020 when leisure and hospitality employment led the way to record readings, Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, says in a note to clients.
- "Other COVID-sensitive sectors, e.g. retail, health and personal services, are likely to enjoy significant increases as well given the easing of distancing restrictions in many states," she adds.
- "Net, our bottom up estimates put total hiring at 2.1 million."
One level deeper: Adding to the strong trend of hiring, more companies are giving out pay increases.
- Amazon said Wednesday that more than 500,000 of its employees would receive pay raises of between 50 cents and $3 an hour, while Walmart and Costco announced wide-ranging pay increases earlier this year.
Yes, but: "Not all will return implying the labor force participation rate may struggle to return to pre-Covid levels," Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer said in a recent note to clients.
- Even after March's strong jobs report, the labor force participation rate remains at its lowest level excluding the pandemic since 1976, and BofA's Meyer estimates that 4.6 million workers remain out of the labor force due to the pandemic.
- There were still 8.4 million fewer people employed in the U.S. as of March than there were in February 2020.