The bond market gets optimistic
The markets are more optimistic about growth and inflation than they have been in over four years.
Driving the news: That's the signal being sent by the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve, where 10-year notes now yield a full percentage point more than their one-year equivalents.
- That might not seem like a lot, but in a world of zero interest rates, it's important. It's a sign the markets are betting that Fed policy will work in terms of creating inflation — something it has signally failed to do over the past decade.
By the numbers: The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — a measure of inflation expectations — has risen to 2.19%, its highest level since 2014.
- The Fed has said that it wants to see inflation above 2% for some time before it starts raising interest rates.
The bottom line: Inflation is an important part of what the economy needs right now.