New research suggests global wildlife may avoid a biodiversity catastrophe

Background: In a world where there are more than 8 million estimated species — the vast majority of which haven't even been identified yet — it's difficult to really know just how endangered endangered species are.

• But some alarming analyses in the past estimated that on average vertebrate species had declined by more than 50% since the 1970s, enough to put the planet on track for what's been called the "Sixth Extinction."

Yes, but: In a study published in Nature this week, researchers used advanced statistical tools to try to discover the true rate of decline in vertebrates.

• They found a more hopeful picture: less than 3% of vertebrate species are catastrophically declining, and once they are removed from the picture, "the picture changes dramatically," Brian Leung, a biologist at McGill University and the lead author of the paper, told Cosmos.

Details: Those earlier pessimistic estimates had been driven by the relatively small number of species that truly are on a highway to extinction.

• Instead of a global biodiversity catastrophe, the researchers behind the new study found a few geographic clusters of systematic losses, but no clear trend for most species.
• Those clusters mean conservation efforts might best be targeted at specific geographic areas that are under threat, like the Indo-Pacific region, which is home to severely endangered birds and freshwater mammals.

The bottom line: As long as humans continue to spread out across the planet and warm the climate, pressure will grow on endangered species. But the situation is far from hopeless.