Nov 6, 2020 - Economy

Republicans' consumer confidence nosedives after Election Day

Data: Morning Consult; Chart: Axios Visuals
Data: Morning Consult; Chart: Axios Visuals

Consumer sentiment among Republicans dropped significantly from Election Day to Wednesday, a new daily survey shows, falling by around five times the survey's standard deviation.

What happened: Even with a result not yet called and President Trump (falsely) claiming victory, a daily index of consumer sentiment fell by 7.6 points among Republicans while remaining constant among Democrats.

  • Morning Consult's daily Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reflected the drop, which a representative for the company called "highly statistically significant."

Why it matters: "If the 2020 election marks the beginning of a period in which consumers of different political parties interpret economic developments increasingly differently, then the strength of the consumer may increasingly depend on consumers’ political views," Morning Consult economist John Leer said in a statement accompanying the survey.

Details: Confidence among Republicans fell to 106.3 from 113.9, while Democrats remained unchanged after increasing 4.6 points from Nov. 1 to Nov. 3.

  • In October, the standard deviation of the ICS among Republicans was 1.6 points.
  • Wednesday's change was 4.8 times the standard deviation.

The big picture: The post-election survey followed an analysis that found a notable downturn in economic sentiment during October, in which Americans at all income levels reported losing pay or income.

  • "[T]he jobs recovery slowed in October and points to future job losses and stubbornly high unemployment in the coming months," Leer wrote on the organization's website Thursday night.
  • "As Americans continue to lose income, consumer spending and the broader economic recovery are also likely to suffer.'
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