Oct 21, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Poll: 92% of battleground state voters are "extremely motivated to vote"

A line of voters stand on a sidewalk

Voters stand in line at the Metropolitan Multi-Services Center in Houston, Texas, on Oct. 13. Photo: Mark Felix for The Washington Post via Getty Images

91% of likely voters nationally say they are "extremely motivated to vote," including 92% in battleground states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a Change Research/CNBC Poll.

Why it matters: The 2020 election could see record-breaking levels of voter turnout. Voters last week cast ballots at nearly five times the rate they did at this point in the 2016 election, per the U.S. Elections Project. Over 39 million ballots have been cast in early voting states as of Wednesday.

  • Nationally, 53% of Biden voters say they have already voted, compared to 25% of Trump supporters, the Change Research/CNBC Poll finds.
  • 93% of battleground Biden voters say they are "extremely motivated," compared to 94% of Trump voters.

Between the lines, via Axios' Stef Kight: Early voting data signals strong Democratic enthusiasm in key battleground states. But strategists in both parties say Republicans could still overtake that advantage with a surge of in-person turnout on Election Day.

The state of play: According to the poll, Biden is leading by 10 points nationally and by at least 2 points in every battleground state polled:

  • Arizona: Biden 51% to Trump 45%  
  • Florida: Biden 50% to Trump 45%
  • Michigan: Biden 51% to Trump 44%
  • North Carolina: Biden 50% to Trump 47% 
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 49% to Trump 47%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 52% to Trump 44% 

Of note: 52% of polled voters are very or somewhat concerned that President Trump will not accept the outcome of the election unless he wins — including 63% of white college women and 48% of white working-class women.

  • Trump has repeatedly refused to say whether he would commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election to Joe Biden.

Methodology: 2,949 likely voters polled by Change Research Oct. 16–19 across six battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 2,711 likely voters were polled Oct. 17–18 in a companion survey. Margin of error ±1.8% for the battleground and ±1.88% for the national poll.

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