Fed Q3 GDP forecasts again diverge widely
The gap between projected GDP growth in the third quarter between the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool and the New York Fed's tool continues to widen.
What it means: Both GDPNow forecasts are driven by economic reports that increase or decrease expected U.S. growth for the quarter.
- The New York Fed's model put less emphasis on the ISM surveys, which track sentiment rather than hard numbers and were extremely strong last quarter, and it puts greater emphasis on import and export data, which was particularly negative for the U.S. in Q3.
- Interestingly, it's similar to the way the two forecasts diverged in Q2.