Aug 21, 2020 - Economy

Leading economic indicators suggest weak end to 2020

Data: The Conference Board; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators increased for the third straight month in July but at a far slower pace than in the previous two months.

Why it matters: "Despite the recent gains in the LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam," Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board, said in a statement accompanying the index's release.

  • "The LEI suggests that the pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final months of 2020."

What it means: The 10 components of index for the U.S. are...

  • Average weekly hours, manufacturing
  • Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
  • ISM index of new orders
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
  • Building permits, new private housing units
  • Stock prices, 500 common stocks
  • Leading Credit Index
  • Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury yields less Fed funds rate
  • Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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