Aug 3, 2020 - Economy

Worry about negative July jobs report grows

Economists at major investment banks are expecting to see job growth reverse course when July's jobs report is released on Friday.

Why it matters: After 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs in April, the worst jobs report in history, May and June saw an unexpected bounce in hiring, but data suggest that bounce has ended.

What they're saying: "[S]ome survey indicators are suggesting that labor market progress has already rolled over and July payrolls could be negative," Deutsche Bank economists said in a note to clients.

  • They expect July's report to show a loss of 400,000 jobs, but warn "it is not clear that the recent rolling over in labor market data will be fully captured in next week's July jobs report."

It could be worse: "High frequency data suggest that the labor market recovery is stalling due to the worsening virus situation," economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients Friday night.

  • "Our trackers suggest that current household employment has fallen by roughly one million since the June survey week."

Yes, but: Economists' predictions were off by 10 million in May. So there's that.

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