Jul 16, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Gallup: Party preference swings dramatically in favor of Democrats


Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Americans' political party preferences have swung sharply from a 2-point Republican advantage in January to an 11-point Democratic advantage in July, according to Gallup's monthly averages of telephone polls in 2020.

The big picture: The dramatic shift is more a product of fewer people identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning (down 8% since January) than gains among those who identify as Democratic or Democratic-leaning (up 5%).

By the numbers: 50% of U.S. adults identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared to 39% for the GOP.

  • 32% of Americans polled identified as Democrats, and another 18% said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party.
  • Meanwhile, 26% identified as Republicans, with another 13% saying they lean toward the GOP.

Zoom in: The month of June alone saw a 3% increase in people identifying as Democratic and Democratic-leaning, while the number of people identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning dropped by 5%.

  • That shift came amid mass protests following the death of George Floyd, which catapulted racial injustice to the forefront of the national conversation, and as the U.S. continued to struggle to contain the coronavirus.
  • Trump has also seen a significant decline in job approval ratings in recent months. 38% of Americans approved of the job he is doing in the latest Gallup poll.

The bottom line: Democrats last held an advantage of 10 points or more in January 2019 (51% to 39%), right after taking control of the House in a sweeping victory in the 2018 midterms.

Go deeper: Trump's summer shakeup shows he knows he's losing

Go deeper