Jul 12, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Polling increasingly suggests Texas will be a swing state in November

Joe Biden speaking at a podium as another photo shows President Trump with his arms crossed
Photo: Spencer Platt/Win McNamee/Getty Images

Eight polls released publicly and rated by FiveThirtyEight since the beginning of June indicate that President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are in a dead heat in Texas, with Biden up by an average of 0.3% with 114 days to go until the election, CNN reports.

Why it matters: The once-Republican stronghold has become more competitive in recent years and is likely to be a presidential swing state in November. A Democratic candidate for president has not won Texas since 1976.

  • Trump took Texas in 2016 with nearly 52% of the vote, according to The New York Times.
  • Hillary Clinton won 43% of the vote, but she was the first Democratic presidential candidate to lose the state by single digits since the 1990s.

Driving the news: A new battleground poll from CBS News/YouGov has President Trump polling at 46% and Biden at 45% in Texas, well within the margin of error.

Go deeper: The demographic shifts that will affect the 2020 election

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