Jun 19, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report moves Michigan from "toss up" to "leans Democratic" in presidential race

President Trump in Warren, Michigan in January 2020.
President Trump in Warren, Mich., in January. Photo: Brittany Greeson/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report on Friday moved its prediction of Michigan's 2020 presidential election results from "toss up" to "leans Democratic."

Why it matters: The state, which President Trump flipped in 2016, remains a key swing state in 2020 — and can be viewed as a bellwether for an important section of the president's base due to its concentration of white, working-class voters.

  • Cook based its decision on the fact that polling averages have Joe Biden leading by 10 points in the state — higher than other similar battlegrounds, like Pennsylvania — and increasingly winning over shares of Republican and independent voters there.
  • But Cook's Amy Walter does note that Trump's polling currently is at a trough — and says it's not yet clear if "he's done permanent damage to his re-election prospects among" his base in Michigan.

Worth noting: In Cook's latest update, Iowa and Ohio also moved from "likely Republican" to the more competitive "lean Republican" category.

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