May 29, 2020 - Economy & Business

Dollar General and Dollar Tree poised to outperform earnings estimates

Dollar Tree storefront
Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Both Dollar Tree and Dollar General beat Wall Street's earnings estimates by a country mile in the first quarter, but Dollar Tree's stock jumped by 11.6% while Dollar General's declined by 1.7%.

What happened: Dollar General had seen its stock rise during coronavirus lockdowns as visits increased thanks to its status as an essential business. Dollar Tree, however, had seen its numbers and stock price plunge.

  • National reopenings look to be helping the fortunes of both companies.

Details: Dollar General visits in January and February 2020 were up 8.2% and 14.8% year-over-year, data firm Placer.ai found. The number of visits continued grow, up 31.4% in March and 19.2% in April, showing "a massive year-over-year increase in a time when most brands were struggling."

  • The week from May 4 to May 10 saw visits rise 30.4% above the weekly baseline for the period from January 2019 through May 11, 2020.

Dollar Tree saw year-over-year increases of 7.7% and 11.9% in January and February 2020. However, in March and April, the brand saw declines of 7.8% and 31.0% year-over-year. 

  • In May, though, the brand is seeing traffic surge back to "normal" levels with visits the week of May 4 rising 21.1% above the baseline, the strongest week since Valentine’s Day week in February, according to Placer.ai's data.

Between the lines: Dollar General’s customer loyalty was 34.2% higher than that of Dollar Tree, according to the data.

  • "Additionally, Dollar General performed better among less affluent audiences, a significant advantage in this sector, especially with the expectations of an economic downturn," Placer.ai analysts note.
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