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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Joe Biden appears close to an electoral win that will likely be narrower than election forecasts projected, and the initial sense that he underperformed expectations, which were themselves off base, could color his election and perhaps his presidency.

The big picture: We can't help but judge events based on whether they exceed or fall short of our expectations for them — but those expectations often aren't grounded in reality.

While the polling industry will sift through the reasons it missed how close the Electoral College fight ultimately was this year, it's vital to keep in mind that our shifting perception of what happened in the election is being shaped by the prior expectations formed by those polls and the order in which information about the vote has come in.

  • Scientists have long known that our expectations about future events influence how we perceive those events when they occur, even on a neurological level.

Driving the news: President Trump has complained that polls projecting a Blue Wave this year equate to a form of voter suppression that kept his supporters home, but the number of votes cast this year gives no support for that argument.

  • Voter turnout this year could end up being the highest since 1900, so there's not much evidence that the forecasts kept Trump's or Biden's supporters at home.
  • Yet the fact that Biden seemed to be coming in below those forecasts — especially at first likely shaped the early perceptions of the election.

The backstory: A 2020 paper found that election forecasts — which can translate what appear to be small polling gaps between candidates into fairly large probabilities that one will ultimately win — are often badly mischaracterized by the public.

  • One-third of study subjects in the paper thought a candidate with an 80% chance of winning had the support of 80% of voters — which is very much not the case.
  • Forecasts that Hillary Clinton was far more likely to win the 2016 election may have shaped coverage of the race as well as decisions by key officials like then-FBI Director James Comey, and could have led many of her supporters to skip voting, according to the study.

But, but, but: "If the polls are wrong, they never described reality, and there is no divergence to explain," the political writer Ezra Klein tweeted. "The map being wrong isn't a mistake of the terrain."

  • The American voting population — at least in terms of electoral votes — was simply closer and more divided than we expected. Had the map been correct, we wouldn't have been surprised by a nail-biter.

Be smart: The unique nature of the 2020 election — conducted during a pandemic, with a record-breaking number of mail-in ballots — also wreaked havoc on our perceptions.

  • Because different states reported results at different times — in part because battleground states like Pennsylvania were not permitted to begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day — it appeared as if Trump had built a lead that Biden then whittled down over time.
  • But remember: the votes existed before they could be counted. What appeared to be Biden "catching up" was just an illusion created by the order in which different votes were counted, albeit an illusion that helped shape how we viewed the election, as some polling experts noted.
A tweet previously embedded here has been deleted or was tweeted from an account that has been suspended or deleted.

The bottom line: Given how problems in polling are making it difficult to really know what the American electorate is thinking, we would be smart to approach the next election — and this one, as the final votes are tabulated — with a little more humility.

Go deeper

Biden plans to keep Christopher Wray as FBI director

FBI Director Christopher Wray at a virtual DOJ news briefing on Oct. 28. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/pool/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden plans to keep Christopher Wray as director of the FBI and has "confidence in the job he is doing," White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed in a tweet Thursday.

The big picture: Wray, who was nominated by former President Trump in 2017 after he fired former FBI Director James Comey, came under heavy criticism from Trump and his allies over the past year.

New York AG alleges "significant evidence" of Trump Organization fraud

Combination images of former President Trump and New York State Attorney General Letitia James. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Scott Heins/Getty Images

New York's attorney general filed a motion Tuesday seeking to compel former President Trump and his two elder children to appear for sworn testimony in her office's civil investigation into the Trump Organization's financial dealings.

Why it matters: Attorney General Letitia James revealed new details in the court filing and a statement on her office's investigation into the Trump Organization's business practices, including a preliminary finding alleging the company used "fraudulent and misleading asset valuations to obtain economic benefits."

4 hours ago - Technology

Ex-N.Y. Post digital chief files lawsuit alleging sexual harassment

Richard B. Levine) (Photo by Richard Levine/Corbis via Getty Images

Former New York Post editor Michelle Gotthelf is suing her former employer, its parent company News Corp. and two editors, alleging she was reprimanded after complaining to senior executives that she was sexually harassed by retired N.Y. Post editor-in-chief Col Allan. The N.Y. Post issued a statement denying any wrongdoing.

Why it matters: "I felt that I owed it to myself and I owed it to the news organization and the people who answered to me," Gotthelf, who was a long time editor at the N.Y. Post, told Axios in an interview.