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Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday has Elizabeth Warren leading by seven points in the 2020 Democratic race while a Wednesday CNN poll gave Joe Biden a 15-point advantage — both among their biggest polling leads so far.

Why it matters: Those back-to-back — and seemingly contradictory — results highlight why looking at a single poll in isolation cannot paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the race, especially months before the first votes are officially cast.

The big picture: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver averaged out the eight major national polls that have been conducted since the October Democratic debate and compared them to an average of those same polls taken before the debate.

  • Under that analysis, only one candidate — Pete Buttigieg — moved by more than 1%.
A tweet previously embedded here has been deleted or was tweeted from an account that has been suspended or deleted.

The bottom line: Right now, the 2020 race is much more stable than the horse race of poll headlines might make it seem.

Go deeper: There's no election polling makeover for 2020

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
48 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden to sign major climate orders, setting up clash with oil industry

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President Biden will sign new executive actions today that provide the clearest signs yet of his climate plans — elevating the issue to a national security priority and kicking off an intense battle with the oil industry,

Driving the news: One move will freeze issuance of new oil-and-gas leases on public lands and waters "to the extent possible," per a White House summary.

The rebellion against Silicon Valley (the place)

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images

Silicon Valley may be a "state of mind," but it's also very much a real enclave in Northern California. Now, a growing faction of the tech industry is boycotting it.

Why it matters: The Bay Area is facing for the first time the prospect of losing its crown as the top destination for tech workers and startups — which could have an economic impact on the region and force it to reckon with its local issues.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
4 hours ago - Economy & Business

Telework's tax mess

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

As teleworkers flit from city to city, they're creating a huge tax mess.

Why it matters: Our tax laws aren't built for telecommuting, and this new way of working could have dire implications for city and state budgets.