Oct 24, 2019

The problem with 2020 presidential polls

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday has Elizabeth Warren leading by seven points in the 2020 Democratic race while a Wednesday CNN poll gave Joe Biden a 15-point advantage — both among their biggest polling leads so far.

Why it matters: Those back-to-back — and seemingly contradictory — results highlight why looking at a single poll in isolation cannot paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the race, especially months before the first votes are officially cast.

The big picture: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver averaged out the eight major national polls that have been conducted since the October Democratic debate and compared them to an average of those same polls taken before the debate.

  • Under that analysis, only one candidate — Pete Buttigieg — moved by more than 1%.

The bottom line: Right now, the 2020 race is much more stable than the horse race of poll headlines might make it seem.

Go deeper: There's no election polling makeover for 2020

Go deeper

11 mins ago - Technology

Cisco, Sony postpone events amid continued protests

Screenshot: Axios (via YouTube)

Cisco said Monday night that it is postponing the online version of Cisco Live, its major customer event, amid the ongoing protests that have followed the killing of George Floyd.

Why it matters: Cisco joins Sony, Electronic Arts and Google in delaying tech events planned for this week.

18 mins ago - Technology

Twitter suspends fake antifa account tied to white nationalists

Twitter said Monday that it has suspended an account named "ANTIFA_US" which it says was tied to the white nationalist group Identity Evropa. Over the weekend, the account had called for violence and its posts had widely circulated online.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of social media being used to exploit and sharpen the very real divisions in American society. It's also the latest example of Twitter more aggressively rooting out false information on its platform.

Updated 32 mins ago - Politics & Policy

The latest: George Floyd protests nationwide

Police officers wearing riot gear push back demonstrators outside of the White House on Monday. Photo: Jose Luis Magana/AFP via Getty Images

Protests over the death of George Floyd and other police-related killings of black people continued for a seventh day across the U.S., with President Trump threatening on Monday to deploy the military if the unrest continues.

The latest: Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser criticized federal police in a tweet Monday night for using munitions earlier in the day "on peaceful protestors in front of the White House, an act that will make the job of (DC Police Department) officers more difficult." "Shameful!" she added as she urged residents to go home and stay safe.