Dec 12, 2019 - World
Fund managers predict strong growth next year for emerging markets
After years of U.S. outperformance, fund managers say they expect American assets to deliver gains in line with international markets in 2020.
The big picture: Firms including BlackRock, BofA and JPMorgan say they are particularly bullish on emerging market equities, which have been unloved in 2019.
What to watch: They predict strong growth next year for EM countries, even as China's growth is widely expected to slow below 6%.
- Big EM economies like Brazil, Russia, Mexico and South Africa are poised to see rebounds in growth after struggling in 2019.
Threat level: While his base case is that the growth decline has bottomed, a major risk to EM and global economic strength is India, BofA's senior global economist Aditya Bhave tells Axios. The country has seen its GDP fall from 7% in the second quarter of 2018 to 4.5% in Q2 this year.
- "It's really concerning and risk is to the downside," Bhave says. "The slowdown is idiosyncratic and it's quite severe."