Voters aren't buying Trump's promises of a health care plan

By the numbers: 81% of Republicans are somewhat or very confident Trump will deliver on his health care promises.

• But 95% of Democrats and 61% of independents say they are not confident Trump will follow through on those promises.
• In fact, just 37% of those polled were aware that Trump had promised to release a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act.

Between the lines: Trump’s argument that he’ll protect Medicare — intended as a counterweight to Medicare for All — also isn’t sticking, the poll found.

• 49% of seniors trust Democrats to do a better job making sure seniors on Medicare are able to get the health care they need, compared with just 33% who said they trust Republicans.

What’s next: For now, this is all theoretical. But if the courts ultimately strike down the Affordable Care Act — as the Trump administration is urging them to do — then Trump will actually need a replacement.

• Public opinion could shift quickly and sharply in that environment, even among many Republicans.