Jul 8, 2019 - Economy
The market is still convinced the Fed will cut rates
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June's strong U.S. jobs report certainly got investors to rethink their expectations for the Fed's upcoming July 30–31 policy meeting, but Fed funds futures prices show they still see a 0% chance Jay Powell and company don't cut U.S. interest rates.
Backdrop: The market also has pared back expectations for 3 hikes (or 75 basis points of cuts) by the end of the year, but only modestly. Investors now see the likelihood of 3 cuts by December as just under 50%.
What to watch: Powell will deliver his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The Fed also will release its June meeting minutes on Wednesday.
