Trump’s threat rollercoaster: He’s bluffing, until he’s not
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When President Trump backed off his threats to hit Mexico with crippling tariffs earlier this week, there was a chorus of commentary that it was all so predictable — but his track record on such threats is anything but.
Between the lines: Trump does frequently back down from threats. But in other cases, he defies expectations by doubling down. Even threats that seem to expire — a national emergency on the border, blanket tariffs on China — can rear their heads once again.
On immigration:
- Trump did move to end protections for Dreamers, leading to a legal battle and a court order that has kept them in effect.
- After it seemed he'd elected not to declare a national emergency for wall funding, he went ahead and did it.
- He hasn’t closed the border, ended birthright citizenship or moved illegal immigrants to sanctuary cities.
On trade:
- Trump did withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Despite threats, he hasn’t pulled out of NAFTA, the KORUS trade deal with South Korea or the World Trade Organization.
- He slapped steel and aluminum tariffs on close allies, but hasn’t followed through on auto tariff threats.
- He’s pushed the trade war with China much farther than expected, carrying out threats to escalate tariffs and target telecom giant Huawei — despite reports along the way that he was ready to back down.
Military intervention:
- Trump has threatened to pull U.S. troops out of both Afghanistan and Syria. They’re still there.
- After threatening to “totally destroy” North Korea and Kim Jong-un, he “fell in love” instead.
- While “all options are on the table” in Venezuela, Trump seems in no hurry to use military force.
International accords:
- It looked for a time like Trump had reconsidered walking away from the Iran nuclear deal. Then he did it. He also started the process to leave the Paris climate accord, as promised.
- NATO is still standing, and Trump hasn’t pulled troops out of South Korea or held the U.S. troop presence in Japan and Germany hostage for more money.
- Trump did move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem despite repeated warnings about the risks of inflaming tensions, including from his own advisers.
Other threats:
- He didn’t cut FEMA funding to California over “mismanagement” around forest fires.
- He hasn’t attempted to change libel laws, or have NBC’s broadcast license revoked. But he has effectively ended the White House press briefing.
The bottom line: Trump often vows to do things no other president would consider, but he's followed through on enough of them that no threat can be immediately dismissed.
