Jan 8, 2019 - Economy

The shutdown's effect on economic data

Dion Rabouin

The Federal Reserve. Photo: Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images

The Federal Reserve may not have access to some important data points because of the partial government shutdown. The Department of Labor will remain open through the shutdown, thanks to an earlier congressional spending agreement, but the Department of Commerce has already closed, shuttering the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

What it means: We'll still get the jobs report and inflation data like CPI, but economic indicators including the government's retail sales report, GDP and durable goods will all stop during the shutdown. Reports on factory orders, construction spending and new home sales have already been missed.

"That would be another reason for the Fed to proceed cautiously with further rate hikes," said Citigroup Research Analyst Andrew Hollenhorst.
Atlanta Fed Chair Raphael Bostic noted in comments Monday afternoon that a lack of government data during the shutdown makes it harder for the Fed to do its job. (A full list of economic reports produced by the Commerce Department.)

Why you'll hear this again: Bostic also pointed to the partial government shutdown as impacting his expectation for just one interest rate hike this year instead of the two outlined at the Fed's most recent meeting.

Overnight from Bloomberg: The shutdown is "forcing analysts to focus on alternative data to gauge the effects of a trade war and the pace of growth in recent weeks... leaning more on reports such as business surveys and port-traffic data.

Go deeper: Trump's new urgency on solving the shutdown

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The shutdown's effect on economic data

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