Nov 3, 2018

The gender gap in 2018

Illustration showing prominent female characters.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The 2018 midterms could have the largest gender gap since 1958.

Women prefer Democrats by a 16-point margin (58% to 42%) and Republicans win men by a 17-point margin (50% to 33%), per a new Quinnipiac University poll.

More women than men have voted early in key battleground states like Georgia (56%); Texas, Florida, and Tennessee (all 54%); Nevada (53%) and Montana (52%).

  • 42% of all Democratic nominees for House, Senate, and governor are women, compared to just 14% of Republican nominees. For Congress overall, Democrats have nominated 198 women to Republicans' 59.
  • In midterms since 2006, more women than men have voted by margins between 4 and 10 points. In the 2016 election, 10 million more women were registered to vote than men.

The bottom line: "The level of enthusiasm among women is going to bear directly on Democratic success," said Jennifer Lawless, a politics professor at the University of Virginia. "If there is a 'blue wave,' that will exist in part because of women."

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