Where Republicans could win in Obama-Trump territory

Of the 21, nine are held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans. Only five of them favor Republicans, 10 favor Democrats, and six are considered toss-ups.

• The GOP has a shot at snatching two of those Democratic-held districts, per FiveThirtyEight's model. Both are in Minnesota (the 1st and 8th districts), which are open seats that Trump won by 15+ points in the 2016 election.
• Four GOP-held districts, all in New York, look like favorable Republican territory according to this week's model. A combination of out-raising their Democratic challengers, winning their 2016 elections by double digits, and running in "some of the state’s Trumpiest corners," as FiveThirtyEight writes, puts them in a good position seven weeks out from the midterms.
• Three are now "likely Democratic" — Minnesota's 2nd, Iowa's 1st, and New Jersey's 11th districts. FiveThirtyEight notes internal polling, House Ethics Committee investigations, and lousy fundraising gives Democrats the advantage in these races.

One more thing: FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a four in five chance of taking the House.