Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Expand chart
Data: Ballotpedia; Chart: Chris Canipe and Neal Rothschild/Axios

Democratic voter turnout in this year's House primaries increased in each of the 19 competitive, comparable House districts compared to 2014, and doubled in more than two thirds of them. That's far better than Republican voter turnout, which increased in 14 of those districts but didn't double in any of them.

Why it matters: Poor turnout has been the scourge of Democrats' efforts to win congressional elections in the last decade. But this data suggests that a surge of anti-Trump enthusiasm could boost their turnout in November — and not just in already-blue areas, but in parts of the country that could deliver control of the House to the Democrats.

Methodology: This analysis focuses on 19 House races out of 68 races classified by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican, Tossup or Lean Democrat. These are the 19 races that had candidates from both parties on the ballot this year and in 2014.

  • Other analyses below include districts where one party or the other had candidates on the ballot in both years.

The other side: If Republican voters become more enthusiastic about the election because of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation fight — as GOP leaders predict they will — this pattern could look different on election day. This analysis is also limited to the House, and doesn't shed light on the Senate races.

Between the lines:

  • Republican enthusiasm is up, but not by as much as Democrats. GOP engagement has been more consistent from election to election.
  • Of the 28 competitive districts where Republicans were on the primary ballot in '14 and '18, 21 had primary turnout increases.
  • There were also 28 competitive districts where Democrats were on the ballot in both years, and there were turnout increases in 27 of them. The exception: NC-13, a Republican-held tossup seat.
  • The biggest spikes in primary turnout for Democrats:
    • IL-14: R-held, Lean R. 2014: 7,875 2018: 51,251
    • TX-07: R-held, Tossup. 2014: 6,589 2018: 33,275
    • NJ-11: R-held, Lean D. 2014: 9,149 2018: 45,629
    • CA-45: R-held, Tossup. 2014: 24,721 2018: 81,193
  • The biggest spikes in primary turnout for Republicans:
    • VA-10: R-held, Lean D. 2014: 13,609 2018: 46,598
    • NJ-11: R-held, Lean D. 2014: 23,525 2018: 41,003
    • WA-05: R-held, Lean R. 2014: 68,501 2018: 110,494

Go deeper

38 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Stalemate over filibuster freezes Congress

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell's inability to quickly strike a deal on a power-sharing agreement in the new 50-50 Congress is slowing down everything from the confirmation of President Biden's nominees to Donald Trump's impeachment trial.

Why it matters: Whatever final stance Schumer takes on the stalemate, which largely comes down to Democrats wanting to use the legislative filibuster as leverage over Republicans, will be a signal of the level of hardball we should expect Democrats to play with Republicans in the new Senate.

Dave Lawler, author of World
1 hour ago - World

Biden opts for five-year extension of New START nuclear treaty with Russia

Putin at a military parade. Photo: Valya Egorshin/NurPhoto via Getty

President Biden will seek a five-year extension of the New START nuclear arms control pact with Russia before it expires on Feb. 5, senior officials told the Washington Post.

Why it matters: The 2010 treaty is the last remaining constraint on the arsenals of the world's two nuclear superpowers, limiting the number of deployed nuclear warheads and the bombers, missiles and submarines which can deliver them.

Updated 1 hour ago - Technology

Facebook refers Trump ban to independent Oversight Board for review

Photo: Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images

Facebook's independent Oversight Board has accepted a referral from the platform to review its decision to indefinitely suspend former President Trump.

Why it matters: While Trump critics largely praised the company's decision to remove the then-president's account for potential incitement of violence, many world leaders and free speech advocates pushed back on the decision, arguing it sets a dangerous precedent for free speech moving forward.