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Paul Ryan at a weekly press conference. Photo: Astrid Riecken/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report just shifted five House races in Democrats' favor. At least six NYT/Siena College polls show Republican incumbents behind their Democratic challengers — and Democrats now hold an eight-point lead in the generic ballot.

Why it matters: Labor Day is traditionally the start of the official election campaign season and the warning signs are starting to pile up for the GOP this month.

The five House races that changed:

  • Colorado's 6th district, held by Rep. Mike Coffman, now rated as "lean Democrat."
  • North Carolina's 13th district, held by Rep. Ted Budd, now rated as "toss up."
  • New York's 2nd district, held by Rep. Peter King, now rated as "likely Republican."
  • Pennsylvania's 1st district, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, now rated as "toss up."
  • Texas' 31st district, held by Rep. John Carter, now rated as "lean Republican."

Be smart: If Democrats want to take the House, these races are crucial to win. Pennsylvania's new maps already give Democrats an advantage; Rep. Coffman is down 11 percentage points in the NYT polls; and Rep. Budd joins Rep. Dave Brat as another vulnerable Freedom Caucus member, which signals how drastically the Republican Party could change after November.

The six Republican incumbents down in the NYT/Sienna College polls:

  • Rep. Coffman is 11 points behind Democrat Jason Crow in Colorado.
  • Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is three points behind Democrat Harley Rouda in California.
  • Rep. Erik Paulsen is nine points behind Democrat Dean Phillips in Minnesota.
  • Rep. Rod Blum is 15 points behind Democrat Abby Finkenauer in Iowa.
  • Rep. Kevin Yoder is eight points behind Democrat Sharice Davids in Kansas.
  • Rep. Mimi Walters who's on our Axios 8 for 2018 watch list is five points behind Democrat Katie Porter in California.

Two more races to watch: Kentucky's 6th district and Illinois' 6th district, where both Republican incumbents are only ahead by one point in the NYT/Siena polls.

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders at FOX News' studios in New York City in 2019. Photo: Steven Ferdman/Getty Images

Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders will announce Monday that she's running for governor of Arkansas.

The big picture: Sanders was touted as a contender after it was announced she was leaving the Trump administration in June 2019. Then-President Trump tweeted he hoped she would run for governor, adding "she would be fantastic." Sanders is "seen as leader in the polls" in the Republican state, notes the Washington Post's Josh Dawsey, who first reported the news.

Updated 31 mins ago - World

Mexican President López Obrador tests positive for coronavirus

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Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced Sunday evening that he's tested positive for COVID-19.

Driving the news: López Obrador tweeted that he has mild symptoms and is receiving medical treatment. "As always, I am optimistic," he added. "We will all move forward."

Coronavirus has inflamed global inequality

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

History will likely remember the pandemic as the "first time since records began that inequality rose in virtually every country on earth at the same time." That's the verdict from Oxfam's inequality report covering the year 2020 — a terrible year that hit the poorest, hardest across the planet.

Why it matters: The world's poorest were already in a race against time, facing down an existential risk in the form of global climate change. The coronavirus pandemic could set global poverty reduction back as much as a full decade, according to the World Bank.