Oct 16, 2018

Warning sign for GOP: Tax cuts are increasingly unpopular

Photo: Cheriss May/NurPhoto via Getty Images

There is now a 12-point gap in support for the GOP tax law, according to a new pre-election poll conducted by Greenberg Research and Democracy Corps for the American Federation of Teachers.

The big picture: It's another alarm bell that Republicans may not be able to win the midterm elections on what they hoped would be their signature legislation of this Congress. In September, a Republican National Committee survey showed more than 60% of voters believe the GOP tax law benefits "large corporations and rich Americans" over "middle class families."

Background: Stanley Greenberg of Greenberg Research was Bill Clinton's pollster. The polling memo, obtained by Axios, declares: "Failing GOP tax scam opportunity for big closing attack" by Democrats.

  • The memo also claims that "embracing the public’s anger with other leaders' out-of-touch portrayal of their economic lives genuinely shifts vote support toward Democratic candidates and increases turnout."

By the numbers: In an April poll conducted by the same groups, 46% supported the GOP tax law while 44% opposed it. The September survey found that support has dropped to 40% and opposition has jumped to 52%.

  • 75% of Republicans support the tax law — compared to 84% in April. Meanwhile, Democrats' opposition increased from 73% to 84%.

The bottom line: Democrats have three weeks to try to use the GOP tax law against Republicans in tough races around the country — even at a time when the economy is far better for Trump's first midterm election than it was for Barack Obama's.

Methodology: The survey was conducted between Sept. 9–23 among 1,000 registered voters over the phone (both landline and cell phone). The margin of error is ±3.1%.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 855,007 — Total deaths: 42,032 — Total recoveries: 176,714.
  2. U.S.: Leads the world in confirmed cases. Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 186,265 — Total deaths: 3,810 — Total recoveries: 6,910.
  3. Business updates: Should you pay your rent or mortgage during the coronavirus pandemic? Find out if you are protected under the CARES Act.
  4. Public health updates: More than 400 long-term care facilities across the U.S. report patients with coronavirus — Older adults and people with underlying health conditions are more at risk, new data shows.
  5. Federal government latest: President Trump said the next two weeks would be "very painful" on Tuesday, with projections indicating the virus could kill 100,000–240,000 Americans. The White House and other institutions are observing several models to help prepare for when COVID-19 is expected to peak in the U.S.
  6. U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt: Captain of nuclear aircraft carrier docked in Guam pleaded with the U.S. Navy for more resources after more than 100 members of his crew tested positive.
  7. What should I do? Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths

President Trump said at a press briefing on Tuesday that the next two weeks in the U.S. will be "very painful" and that he wants "every American to be prepared for the days that lie ahead," before giving way to Deborah Birx to explain the models informing the White House's new guidance on the coronavirus.

Why it matters: It's a somber new tone from the president that comes after his medical advisers showed him data projecting that the virus could kill 100,000–240,000 Americans — even with strict social distancing guidelines in place.

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Paying rent in a pandemic

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

For many people who've lost jobs or income because of the coronavirus pandemic, tomorrow presents a stressful decision: Do you pay your rent or mortgage?

Why it matters: The new CARES Act that was signed by President Trump on Friday protects homeowners and renters who are suffering from the response to the coronavirus pandemic — but it's not “a one-size-fits-all policy rulebook,” a congressional aide tells Axios.

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