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Global average surface temperatures in 2018 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Graphic via the Copernicus Climate Service

The Copernicus Climate Service (C3S), an EU-funded program, has concluded that 2018 was Earth's 4th-warmest year on record — with the past 4 years serving as the hottest years the planet has seen since instrument records began in 1880 (and likely well before that).

The big picture: With U.S. science agencies hobbled by the partial government shutdown, the new findings are the first to provide a global perspective on 2018's temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. While they're in line with projections, they still underscore how severe the climate change problem is becoming.

The details: Last year had a global average surface temperature that was 0.2°C, or 0.36°F, colder than 2016, which was the warmest year in Copernicus' dataset, but more than 0.4°C, or 0.72°F, above the 1981-2010 average. Scientists at C3S also found:

  • The average temperature of the last 5 years was 1.1°C, or 1.98°F, higher than the pre-industrial average.
  • This is significant since temperatures are edging closer to the 1.5°C aspirational warming target contained in the Paris climate agreement, which many low-lying island nations see as key to their survival.
  • Using satellite measurements, the climate service reported that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by about 2.5 parts per million per year in 2018 — and are at a record high. Previous studies have found that CO2 levels are higher now than they have been in more than 800,000 years.

According to C3S, the Arctic saw the most unusual warmth in 2018, particularly north of the Bering Strait between U.S. and Russia. Europe, the Middle East, and western North America were warmer-than-average for the year, while parts of the globe, including central Asia, had a cooler-than-average year.

But, but, but: Unlike NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S., C3S uses a different mathematical model to combine millions of land, ocean, airborne and satellite observations. Based at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather in England, C3S has the advantage of providing temperature measurements in areas that are data sparse, such as the Arctic and over the oceans.

  • The C3S data is especially useful for comparing other groups' long-term surface data that also track global warming, such as NASA, NOAA and the Hadley Center in the U.K.

The bottom line: No matter which data you look at, the story is the same: The planet is warming rapidly, while the amount of greenhouse gases in the air continues to increase, overwhelmingly due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels for energy.

Go deeper: Key global warming target slipping out of reach, UN scientists warn

Go deeper

Tech scrambles to derail inauguration threats

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Tech companies are sharing more information with law enforcement in a frantic effort to prevent violence around the inauguration, after the government was caught flat-footed by the Capitol siege.

Between the lines: Tech knows it will be held accountable for any further violence that turns out to have been planned online if it doesn't act to stop it.

Dave Lawler, author of World
2 hours ago - World

Uganda's election: Museveni declared winner, Wine claims fraud

Wine rejected the official results of the election. Photo: Sumy Sadruni/AFP via Getty

Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of a sixth presidential term on Saturday, with official results giving him 59% to 35% for Bobi Wine, the singer-turned-opposition leader.

Why it matters: This announcement was predictable, as the election was neither free nor fair and Museveni had no intention of surrendering power after 35 years. But Wine — who posed a strong challenged to Museveni, particularly in urban areas, and was beaten and arrested during the campaign — has said he will present evidence of fraud. The big question is whether he will mobilize mass resistance in the streets.

Off the Rails

Episode 1: A premeditated lie lit the fire

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. Axios takes you inside the collapse of a president with a special series.

Episode 1: Trump’s refusal to believe the election results was premeditated. He had heard about the “red mirage” — the likelihood that early vote counts would tip more Republican than the final tallies — and he decided to exploit it.

"Jared, you call the Murdochs! Jason, you call Sammon and Hemmer!”