Axios Hill Leaders

June 08, 2026
Happy Monday! Big week coming. Tonight's edition is 750 words, 3 minutes.
- 💰Scoop: Big bet on '28 maps
- ✡️ Scoop: State's antisemitism accusation
😎☀️ Programming note: Hans is off for a few weeks of well-deserved sabbatical time and will be back after the Fourth of July.
- Hans, if you're reading this, enjoy the break.
1 big thing: 💰Scoop ... Big bet on '28 maps
Democrats are pushing the fight over future House maps down ballot, with the super PAC Forward Majority planning to spend $30 million on two dozen state legislative races this year.
🏛️ Why it matters: The group is betting that as few as eight statehouse races could help determine who controls redistricting for six U.S. House seats ahead of 2028.
- 🤠 "We're in the Wild West now," said Leslie Martes, the chief executive officer of Forward Majority.
- "There are 7,000 legislative districts across the country. Not all of them are up this year, but you've got to make sure that you're playing in the right places with the resources that you have."
➕ Zoom in: In Texas this year, Republicans showed Democrats that redistricting didn't have to be a decennial affair, pushing through a mid-cycle redistricting that aims to net five new GOP seats.
- Democrats responded in kind in California, but a state Supreme Court decision blocked Virginia's aggressive redraw.
- The Supreme Court's Callais ruling weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, giving both parties more room to pursue aggressive redistricting strategies.
- 10 states ended up with new maps for 2026. Other states flirted with redraws but held back due to tight deadlines or skittish state legislatures.
📢 Zoom out: Republicans plan to pad their numbers in states like Georgia and Mississippi ahead of 2028.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is preparing to respond by squeezing more Democratic-friendly seats from blue states.
- But both parties need the same thing to become creative cartographers: control of the state House, state Senate and governor's mansion.
- That is especially important ahead of the 2030 census, when all 50 states will redraw their lines.
‼️ The intrigue: Forward Majority predicts that eight races in five states — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — could help determine control of legislative chambers representing roughly 42 million Americans.
- "We think it's one to two seats in Wisconsin, one to three in Pennsylvania, and at least one in Minnesota," Martes said. Arizona and Michigan use commissions to redraw congressional maps.
- Forward Majority is basing this prediction on an in-house modeling system called "Tipping Points" that analyzes precinct-level demographic and political data to find its best opportunities.
😥 The bottom line: "We win and lose some of these districts by 64 votes," Martes said.
— Hans Nichols
2. ✡️ Scoop: State's antisemitism accusation
A new State Department report accuses Iran, Russia and China of incorporating antisemitic narratives, threats and attacks into operations in both the physical and cyber domains.
Why it matters: The report, which was transmitted to Congress on May 26, is likely to increase pressure on the Trump administration to treat attacks on Jewish communities as part of a broader foreign interference challenge rather than isolated incidents of extremism.
- "Iran, Russia, China and affiliated non-state actors employed antisemitic symbols, graffiti, threats and online propaganda across physical and cyber domains," the report says.
- "The deliberate targeting of Jewish institutions, memorial sites and religious symbols is intended to provoke fear and outrage, polarize societies and erode public trust."
What they are saying: "We don't comment on congressional reports or correspondence," a State Department spokesperson said.
- Emails seeking comment from the Chinese and Russian embassies and the Iranian Interests Section in Washington were not returned.
Zoom out: Republican and Democratic lawmakers have expanded investigations, hearings and legislation aimed at countering foreign influence operations.
- With the rise of social media, there is growing concern that Russia, China and Iran are exploiting social divisions to weaken democratic societies from within.
- The report was required by Congress in the State Department's annual appropriations bill.
The intrigue: The report relies largely on public sources to support its claims, citing media reports in its footnotes.
- But the State Department did not publicly release the report, which some congressional officials expected.
Zoom in: The report alleges that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leveraged social media bots to amplify antisemitic narratives.
- It also details threats in the physical world, including an IRGC plot to assassinate a rabbi in Azerbaijan.
- On China, the report cites a post by China's consul general in Osaka, Japan, comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.
— Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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