Axios Future of Energy

April 24, 2026
πΊ Happy Friday! We're closing the week with a quick read covering...
- The rise in U.S. oil exports β and how much more they might climb
- New reactors, good weekend reads and more, all in 992 words, 3.5 minutes.
π¨ Situational awareness: President Trump is waiving the Jones Act for another 90 days in a bid to ease oil and fuel movements among U.S. ports.
π§ This week marks 20 years since Mark Knopfler and Emmylou Harris released "All the Roadrunning," which provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Trump's oil export surge β and ceiling
The bottling up of Middle East oil is giving a lift to U.S. exports, but there are real limits on how much more they can grow.
Why it matters: President Trump keeps talking up U.S. exports as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and oil and gas exports give America more geopolitical leverage.
- But at some point, the limits of its infrastructure β especially Gulf Coast ports and terminals β are likely to put a ceiling on how much more oil the U.S. can export.
- And nearer term, higher U.S. shipments can only offset a small amount of the massive drop in Middle East transit.
The big picture: The Iran war could redraw the world's oil map, or at least parts of it.
- Think Mideast producers building pipelines to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but also more tanker shipments from the U.S. and other countries outside the Persian Gulf.
- "Even post-conflict, we expect [that] some of the trade flows [will] tend to reset" rather than return to what they were before the war, said Rob Wilson of the energy data and consulting firm East Daley Analytics.
Driving the news: It's already happening.
- Combined U.S. exports of oil and petroleum products (gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) hit a record of 12.9 million barrels per day last week, federal data shows.
- The data is noisy, but analysts agree the trend is up as energy-thirsty countries scramble for supply.
How it works: U.S. crude exports generally have run in the range of 3.5 million to 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in recent years.
- But they're higher lately. Market intel firm Kpler expects an average of 5 million bpd in April for the first time on a monthly basis.
- Kpler's Matt Smith cites greater availability of huge tankers β "very large crude carriers" (VLCCs) that tote about 2 million barrels β due to the strait closure, and relatively attractive U.S. oil prices compared to other grades.
What's next: Watch whether the recent rise is a new normal β and how much more growth is feasible for crude and oil products.
State of play: Smith says around 6.5 million bpd is possible in a given week for crude, but he sees a monthly ceiling in the 5.5 million bpd range due to logistical constraints.
- Wilson of East Daley Analytics sees a "soft" ceiling of 1-2 million barrels of additional crude exports available, but similarly notes hurdles.
The intrigue: A big question is whether all this (waves arms around) brings fresh private investment to expand Gulf Coast port and terminal capacity.
- Several offshore crude port projects have been in the planning stages for years β like Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink.
Reality check: Jacques Rousseau, managing director with the research firm ClearView Energy Partners, said only Texas Gulflink "appears to be moving forward."
2. π§ Bonus: Charting the export increase


This chart shows the growth of U.S. crude and product shipments abroad, driven partly by the ban on crude exports ending in 2015.
The latest: One thing likely to affect crude export volumes in the future is the path of crude production.
- Many oil and gas execs see only a modest production increase in response to the Iran war, per a new Dallas Fed survey.
What we're watching: On the products side, the White House points out that the Trump-supported America First Refining is planning a Texas project that would be the first new U.S. refinery in decades.
- It's designed to serve domestic and international markets.
3. π Catch up quick: Nuclear news, solar trade, critical minerals
π΅ ICYMI: X-energy, an Amazon-backed small reactor and nuclear fuel startup, raised $1 billion in its upsized IPO, it announced last night. Go deeper
π· TerraPower, the Bill Gates-backed nuclear company, broke ground on a Wyoming project that it calls "on track to be the first utility-scale advanced nuclear power plant" in the U.S. The WSJ has more.
βοΈ Via Reuters, the Commerce Department yesterday announced preliminary antidumping duties on solar cells and panels from India, Indonesia βand Laos, "the latest in a string of tariffs imposed βover a decade on solar imports from Asia."
βοΈ Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, has "told US allies they must pay more for critical minerals sourced from outside China as Washington tries to break Beijing's stranglehold on supplies," the Financial Times reports.
4. π Hot Reads: Climate, oil, batteries
What a 5,000-mile-long marine heat wave means for summer in the U.S. (Washington Post)
Amy says: This is troubling considering how dry and warm this winter has already been for many parts of the West (including where I live in Seattle). Despite climate falling off the radar, it's still very much infiltrating our lives.
Why the Persian Gulf has more oil and gas than anywhere else on Earth (The Conversation)
Ben says: This lesson in geologic history, courtesy of the University of Washington's Scott Montgomery, is an accessible way to understand the science behind the energy stakes of the Iran war.
California is ground zero for the growing battery backlash (Bloomberg)
Amy says: The fire risk of lithium-ion batteries is a reminder that all energy types have their trade-offs. I wonder if there could be unintended consequences of other types of longer-duration energy storage.
5. π Number of the day: -34%
That's the first quarter decline in U.S. clean energy manufacturing investment compared to the first three months of 2025, per new data from the Rhodium Group and MIT.
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π Thanks to David Nather and Chris Speckhard for editing and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
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