The bottling up of Middle East oil is giving a lift to U.S. exports, but there are real limits on how much more they can grow.

Why it matters: President Trump keeps talking up U.S. exports as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and oil and gas exports give America more geopolitical leverage.

• But at some point, the limits of its infrastructure — especially Gulf Coast ports and terminals — are likely to put a ceiling on how much more oil the U.S. can export.
• And nearer term, higher U.S. shipments can only offset a small amount of the massive drop in Middle East transit.

The big picture: The Iran war could redraw the world's oil map, or at least parts of it.

• Think Mideast producers building pipelines to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but also more tanker shipments from the U.S. and other countries outside the Persian Gulf.
• "Even post-conflict, we expect [that] some of the trade flows [will] tend to reset" rather than return to what they were before the war, said Rob Wilson of the energy data and consulting firm East Daley Analytics.

Driving the news: It's already happening.

• Combined U.S. exports of oil and petroleum products (gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) hit a record of 12.9 million barrels per day last week, federal data shows.
• The data is noisy, but analysts agree the trend is up as energy-thirsty countries scramble for supply.

How it works: U.S. crude exports generally have run in the range of 3.5 million to 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in recent years.

• But they're higher lately. Market intel firm Kpler expects an average of 5 million bpd in April for the first time on a monthly basis.
• Kpler's Matt Smith cites greater availability of huge tankers — "very large crude carriers" (VLCCs) that tote about 2 million barrels — due to the strait closure, and relatively attractive U.S. oil prices compared to other grades.

What's next: Watch whether the recent rise is a new normal — and how much more growth is feasible for crude and oil products.

State of play: Smith says around 6.5 million bpd is possible in a given week for crude, but he sees a monthly ceiling in the 5.5 million bpd range due to logistical constraints.

• Wilson of East Daley Analytics sees a "soft" ceiling of 1-2 million barrels of additional crude exports available, but similarly notes hurdles.

The intrigue: A big question is whether all this (waves arms around) brings fresh private investment to expand Gulf Coast port and terminal capacity.

• Several offshore crude port projects have been in the planning stages for years — like Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink.

Reality check: Jacques Rousseau, managing director with the research firm ClearView Energy Partners, said only Texas Gulflink "appears to be moving forward."

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This chart shows the growth of U.S. crude and product shipments abroad, driven partly by the ban on crude exports ending in 2015.

The latest: One thing likely to affect crude export volumes in the future is the path of crude production.

• Many oil and gas execs see only a modest production increase in response to the Iran war, per a new Dallas Fed survey.

What we're watching: On the products side, the White House points out that the Trump-supported America First Refining is planning a Texas project that would be the first new U.S. refinery in decades.

• It's designed to serve domestic and international markets.

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