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Expand chart
Data: International Energy Agency; Chart: Axios Visuals

The International Energy Agency's new five-year oil market outlook warns that surging U.S. oil production might not be enough to prevent inadequate global supplies in a few years.

Why it matters: The annual report released Monday signals that despite the price rebound and a major upward revision in U.S. production estimates, the agency remains concerned about the shape of the global market as soon as the early part of the next decade.

  • "Upstream investment shows little sign of recovering from its plunge in 2015-2016, which raises concerns about whether adequate supply will be available to offset natural field declines and meet robust demand growth after 2020," writes IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

Check out the chart above: The latest forecast shows global oil demand rising by nearly 7 million barrels per day over the next five years to reach roughly 105 million barrels per day in 2023.

Worldwide oil production capacity is forecast to expand by roughly 6.4 million barrels per day over the same period, over half of which comes from the U.S. shale surge that has sent U.S. production to record levels, and reach 107 million barrels per day by 2023.

The big picture: The margin between demand and production capacity will nonetheless get very thin in a few years, IEA said.

  • "The upshot of our analysis is that the market could go through two phases during the next six years. Through 2020, record supply from non-OPEC countries more than covers expected demand growth," the report states.
  • "But by 2023, if investments remain insufficient, the effective global spare capacity cushion falls to only 2.2% of demand, the lowest number since 2007. This raises the possibility of oil prices becoming more volatile until new supplies come on line," it adds.

One key number: The new five-year outlook boosts the IEA's projection of U.S. supply growth by over 2 million barrels per day compared to the prior edition.

  • "Total U.S. oil supply is forecast to expand by 3.7 [million barrels per day] to 2023, accounting for more than two-thirds of all non-OPEC gains," the report states.
  • U.S. crude oil production rises by 2.7 million barrels per day to reach 12.1 million, thanks to the shale surge that more than offsets declines in conventional U.S. supplies, the agency predicts.

Go deeper

Most teachers are white. Most students aren't.

Expand chart
Data: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

The nation's 6.6 million teacher workforce has grown more racially and ethnically diverse over the past three decades — but not nearly fast enough to keep pace with a student population that's nearing majority-minority in public schools, two new reports show.

Why it matters: The disparities are especially acute between Hispanic students and teachers, and in schools with 90% or higher non-white student populations.

Updated 11 hours ago - World

UK government: Kremlin has plan "to install pro-Russian leadership" in Ukraine

British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss. Photo: Gints Ivuskans / AFP via Getty Images

The United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary on Saturday night said the government has "information that indicates the Russian Government is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine."

Driving the news: U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horne called the intelligence "deeply concerning" in a statement to Axios. The Biden administration has said Russia is actively manufacturing a pretext for invasion and warned that Putin could use joint military exercises in Belarus as cover to invade from the north.

Updated 12 hours ago - Science

This powerful new accelerator looks for keys to the center of atoms

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Nuclear physicists trying to piece together how atoms are built are about to get a powerful new tool.

Why it matters: When the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams begins experiments later this spring, physicists from around the world will use the particle accelerator to better understand the inner workings of atoms that make up all the matter that can be seen in the universe.