Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Expand chart
Data: International Energy Agency; Chart: Axios Visuals

The International Energy Agency's new five-year oil market outlook warns that surging U.S. oil production might not be enough to prevent inadequate global supplies in a few years.

Why it matters: The annual report released Monday signals that despite the price rebound and a major upward revision in U.S. production estimates, the agency remains concerned about the shape of the global market as soon as the early part of the next decade.

  • "Upstream investment shows little sign of recovering from its plunge in 2015-2016, which raises concerns about whether adequate supply will be available to offset natural field declines and meet robust demand growth after 2020," writes IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

Check out the chart above: The latest forecast shows global oil demand rising by nearly 7 million barrels per day over the next five years to reach roughly 105 million barrels per day in 2023.

Worldwide oil production capacity is forecast to expand by roughly 6.4 million barrels per day over the same period, over half of which comes from the U.S. shale surge that has sent U.S. production to record levels, and reach 107 million barrels per day by 2023.

The big picture: The margin between demand and production capacity will nonetheless get very thin in a few years, IEA said.

  • "The upshot of our analysis is that the market could go through two phases during the next six years. Through 2020, record supply from non-OPEC countries more than covers expected demand growth," the report states.
  • "But by 2023, if investments remain insufficient, the effective global spare capacity cushion falls to only 2.2% of demand, the lowest number since 2007. This raises the possibility of oil prices becoming more volatile until new supplies come on line," it adds.

One key number: The new five-year outlook boosts the IEA's projection of U.S. supply growth by over 2 million barrels per day compared to the prior edition.

  • "Total U.S. oil supply is forecast to expand by 3.7 [million barrels per day] to 2023, accounting for more than two-thirds of all non-OPEC gains," the report states.
  • U.S. crude oil production rises by 2.7 million barrels per day to reach 12.1 million, thanks to the shale surge that more than offsets declines in conventional U.S. supplies, the agency predicts.

Go deeper

Updated 8 hours ago - World

Mexican President López Obrador tests positive for coronavirus

Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador during a press conference at National Palace in Mexico City, Mexico, on Wednesday. Photo: Ismael Rosas/Eyepix Group/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced Sunday evening that he's tested positive for COVID-19.

Driving the news: López Obrador tweeted that he has mild symptoms and is receiving medical treatment. "As always, I am optimistic," he added. "We will all move forward."

8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Sarah Huckabee Sanders to run for governor of Arkansas

Sarah Huckabee Sanders at FOX News' studios in New York City in 2019. Photo: Steven Ferdman/Getty Images

Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders will announce Monday that she's running for governor of Arkansas.

The big picture: Sanders was touted as a contender after it was announced she was leaving the Trump administration in June 2019. Then-President Trump tweeted he hoped she would run for governor, adding "she would be fantastic." Sanders is "seen as leader in the polls" in the Republican state, notes the Washington Post's Josh Dawsey, who first reported the news.

Coronavirus has inflamed global inequality

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

History will likely remember the pandemic as the "first time since records began that inequality rose in virtually every country on earth at the same time." That's the verdict from Oxfam's inequality report covering the year 2020 — a terrible year that hit the poorest, hardest across the planet.

Why it matters: The world's poorest were already in a race against time, facing down an existential risk in the form of global climate change. The coronavirus pandemic could set global poverty reduction back as much as a full decade, according to the World Bank.