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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro gather in Caracas. Photo: Miraflores Palace/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Investors are closely watching the clash in Venezuela with a clear and vested interest in President Nicolás Maduro's ouster. They also have become less convinced the opposition can succeed.

Why it matters: Despite calls of support from President Trump and politicians around the globe, investors tell Axios they are starting to lose faith in the opposition's ability to topple Maduro alone, given an apparent increase of support from Russia.

The big picture: On the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., investors discussed a proposed power-sharing agreement between the opposition, led by the U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido and the military.

  • "At some point they are probably going to have to swallow the second-best outcome," Mike Conelius, an EM debt fund manager at T. Rowe Price, told Axios after the meetings.

Catch up quick: Guaido called on the country's military to turn against Maduro yesterday, sparking a stand-off between his supporters and the government.

  • Maduro has led the country into its worst ever recession with sky-rocketing poverty rates and inflation estimated to be 10,000,000%.
  • He also has stopped payment on Venezuela's bonds, with the exception of the state-oil company bond maturing next year.
  • Investors believe a new regime will be more than willing to pay up and likely right away.
  • JP Morgan earlier this year decided not to remove Venezuela from its EMBI Global index, meaning investors who track it own Venezuelan bonds and are unable to sell them because the Treasury has effectively banned trading

Where it stands: Because the Maduro regime has gotten continued support from Russia, China and Cuba, opposition efforts have come up short. Investors are stuck rooting for regime change, which they believe will lead to a removal of U.S. sanctions and possibly the chance to make further investments in the country.

  • "Once you're in an environment where sanctions come off investors can step in and lend new money to the country," Conelius said. "We can be faster than the IMF. Not bigger, but really quick in terms of getting further investments into the country in oil and other supplies. Because we're already invested. We want the country to recover as much as anybody."

Go deeper: Pompeo says Russians convinced Venezuela's Maduro not to flee

Go deeper

Updated 48 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Health: Trump, Melania received COVID vaccine at White House in January — CDC director warns "now is not the time" to lift COVID restrictions.
  2. Vaccine: J&J CEO "absolutely" confident in vaccine distribution goals Most states aren't prioritizing prisons for COVID vaccines — Vaccine hesitancy is shrinking.
  3. Economy: Apple says all U.S. stores open for the first time since start of pandemic — What's really going on with the labor market.
  4. Sports: Poll weighs impact of athlete vaccination.
  5. World: Italy tightens restrictions as experts warn of growing prevalence of variants — PA announces new COVID restrictions as cases surge.
  6. Local: Colorado sets timeline for return to normalcy.
Updated 52 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Trump received COVID vaccine at White House in January

Photo: Noam Galai/Getty Images

Former President Trump and former first lady Melania Trump were both vaccinated at the White House in January, a Trump adviser tells Axios.

Why it matters: Trump declared at CPAC on Sunday that "everybody" should get the coronavirus vaccine — the first time he's encouraged his supporters, who have been more skeptical of getting vaccinated, to do so.

Biden administration seeks to allow separated migrant families to reunite in U.S.

Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas announced Monday that the Biden administration will explore "lawful pathways" to allow migrant families separated under the Trump administration to reunite in the U.S.

Why it matters: Biden has pledged to reunite the hundreds of families still separated as a result of the Trump administration's "zero tolerance" policy, and signed an executive order last month creating a family separation task force chaired by Mayorkas.

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