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Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro gather in Caracas. Photo: Miraflores Palace/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Investors are closely watching the clash in Venezuela with a clear and vested interest in President Nicolás Maduro's ouster. They also have become less convinced the opposition can succeed.

Why it matters: Despite calls of support from President Trump and politicians around the globe, investors tell Axios they are starting to lose faith in the opposition's ability to topple Maduro alone, given an apparent increase of support from Russia.

The big picture: On the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., investors discussed a proposed power-sharing agreement between the opposition, led by the U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido and the military.

  • "At some point they are probably going to have to swallow the second-best outcome," Mike Conelius, an EM debt fund manager at T. Rowe Price, told Axios after the meetings.

Catch up quick: Guaido called on the country's military to turn against Maduro yesterday, sparking a stand-off between his supporters and the government.

  • Maduro has led the country into its worst ever recession with sky-rocketing poverty rates and inflation estimated to be 10,000,000%.
  • He also has stopped payment on Venezuela's bonds, with the exception of the state-oil company bond maturing next year.
  • Investors believe a new regime will be more than willing to pay up and likely right away.
  • JP Morgan earlier this year decided not to remove Venezuela from its EMBI Global index, meaning investors who track it own Venezuelan bonds and are unable to sell them because the Treasury has effectively banned trading

Where it stands: Because the Maduro regime has gotten continued support from Russia, China and Cuba, opposition efforts have come up short. Investors are stuck rooting for regime change, which they believe will lead to a removal of U.S. sanctions and possibly the chance to make further investments in the country.

  • "Once you're in an environment where sanctions come off investors can step in and lend new money to the country," Conelius said. "We can be faster than the IMF. Not bigger, but really quick in terms of getting further investments into the country in oil and other supplies. Because we're already invested. We want the country to recover as much as anybody."

Go deeper: Pompeo says Russians convinced Venezuela's Maduro not to flee

Go deeper

2 hours ago - World

U.S: Nord Stream 2 "will not move forward" if Russia invades Ukraine

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price during a press briefing at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. will make sure the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project between Russia and Germany won't go ahead if Russian troops invade Ukraine, State Department spokesperson Ned Price told NPR on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Germany's ambassador to the U.S. appeared to support Price's strong rhetoric on the strategically significant pipeline that would circumvent Ukrainian transit infrastructure and deliver Russian gas directly to Germany, eliminating one of the last deterrents Ukraine has against an invasion, per Axios' Zachary Basu.

Scoop: Stephanie Ruhle to replace Brian Williams on MSNBC

Photo: Nathan Congleton/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images via Getty Images

MSNBC will soon announce plans to move morning anchor Stephanie Ruhle to the 11 pm ET hour that Brian Williams turned into an elite destination, two sources familiar with the move tell Axios.

Details: The 9 am ET hour, currently hosted by Ruhle, will become part of MSNBC's flagship morning show, "Morning Joe," which currently runs from 6 am to 9 am ET.

Oath Keepers leader denied bail on Capitol riot sedition charge

Oath Keepers co-founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

A federal judge ordered Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes to remain jailed Wednesday until trial on charges stemming from the Capitol riot.

Why it matters: The judge said the most prominent far-right figure charged in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection had access to weapons and his alleged "continued advocacy for violence against the federal government" gave credence to prosecutors' view that, if released, Rhodes could endanger others.

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