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Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro gather in Caracas. Photo: Miraflores Palace/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Investors are closely watching the clash in Venezuela with a clear and vested interest in President Nicolás Maduro's ouster. They also have become less convinced the opposition can succeed.

Why it matters: Despite calls of support from President Trump and politicians around the globe, investors tell Axios they are starting to lose faith in the opposition's ability to topple Maduro alone, given an apparent increase of support from Russia.

The big picture: On the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., investors discussed a proposed power-sharing agreement between the opposition, led by the U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido and the military.

  • "At some point they are probably going to have to swallow the second-best outcome," Mike Conelius, an EM debt fund manager at T. Rowe Price, told Axios after the meetings.

Catch up quick: Guaido called on the country's military to turn against Maduro yesterday, sparking a stand-off between his supporters and the government.

  • Maduro has led the country into its worst ever recession with sky-rocketing poverty rates and inflation estimated to be 10,000,000%.
  • He also has stopped payment on Venezuela's bonds, with the exception of the state-oil company bond maturing next year.
  • Investors believe a new regime will be more than willing to pay up and likely right away.
  • JP Morgan earlier this year decided not to remove Venezuela from its EMBI Global index, meaning investors who track it own Venezuelan bonds and are unable to sell them because the Treasury has effectively banned trading

Where it stands: Because the Maduro regime has gotten continued support from Russia, China and Cuba, opposition efforts have come up short. Investors are stuck rooting for regime change, which they believe will lead to a removal of U.S. sanctions and possibly the chance to make further investments in the country.

  • "Once you're in an environment where sanctions come off investors can step in and lend new money to the country," Conelius said. "We can be faster than the IMF. Not bigger, but really quick in terms of getting further investments into the country in oil and other supplies. Because we're already invested. We want the country to recover as much as anybody."

Go deeper: Pompeo says Russians convinced Venezuela's Maduro not to flee

Go deeper

6 hours ago - Health

FDA advisory panel recommends Pfizer boosters for those 65 and older

A healthcare worker prepares a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at the Key Biscayne Community Center on Aug. 24, 2021. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A key Food and Drug Administration advisory panel on Friday overwhelmingly voted against recommending Pfizer vaccine booster shots for younger Americans, but unanimously recommended approving the third shots for individuals 65 and older, as well as those at high-risk of severe COVID-19.

Why it matters: While the votes are non-binding, and the FDA must still make a final decision, Friday's move pours cold water on the Biden administration's plan to begin administering boosters to most individuals who received the Pfizer vaccine later this month.

6 hours ago - World

France recalls ambassadors from U.S. and Australia over submarine deal

Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L), French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (C), and French ambassador to the U.S. Philippe Etienne. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

France has taken the extraordinary step of recalling its ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia after both countries blindsided their French allies with a new military pact and submarine contract, the French Foreign Ministry announced on Friday.

The backstory: While sealing an agreement with the U.S. and U.K. to acquire nuclear submarines, Australia ripped up an existing $90 billion submarine deal with France. That led senior French officials to accuse the U.S. of a "stab in the back."

Updated 7 hours ago - World

In reversal, Pentagon now says drone strike killed 10 Afghan civilians

Caskets for the dead are carried towards the gravesite as relatives and friends attend a mass funeral for members of a family that is said to have been killed in a U.S. drone airstrike, in Kabul on Aug. 30. Photo: Marcus Yam/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

A U.S. drone strike launched on Aug. 29 killed 10 civilians in Afghanistan, including seven children, rather than the Islamic State extremists the Biden administration claimed it targeted, the Pentagon said Friday.

Why it matters: U.S. Central Command said at the time that officials "know" the drone strike "disrupted an imminent ISIS-K threat" to Kabul's airport, and that they were "confident we successfully hit the target."

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