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Data: EIA; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Pain in the U.S. oil patch from the coronavirus outbreak is no longer on the horizon. It's here, and several new reports and data points show how quickly it's happening.

Driving the news: The Energy Information Administration yesterday released a sharp downward revision to its U.S. crude oil production forecast.

  • Declines are now projected to be deeper and begin faster than the prior forecast issued less than a month ago, as the chart above shows.
  • EIA now sees U.S. crude oil production falling to an average of 11.76 million barrels per day this year and just over 11 million in 2021.
  • And via Politico, "EIA's forecast may still be too rosy, since many industry analysts are expecting U.S. production to decline by 3 million barrels per day or more this year as companies tighten spending and idle drilling rigs."

The big picture: EIA's closely watched outlook was not the only sign yesterday of how the twin effects of collapsing demand and low prices are taking hold, prompting layoffs and pushing some firms closer to bankruptcy.

What they're saying: A new report from the Kansas City Fed, which surveyed energy companies, finds that activity "decreased at a steep pace in the first quarter of 2020."

  • Why it matters: The Kansas City Fed region covers oil and natural gas producing states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Oklahoma.
  • What they found: The survey showed that expectations around future profits, employment, spending and revenues all fell.
  • What's next: The survey asked what prices for WTI the firms need for drilling to be profitable in fields where they're active. The average is $47-per-barrel. Prices are currently in the $24 range.
  • Threat level: Participants in the survey expect, on average, that 61% of firms will stay solvent in the next year if prices were at $30, and that only moves to 64% at $40.

Meanwhile, the law firm Haynes and Boone, which carefully tracks industry finances, yesterday issued its latest report on bankruptcies and what's ahead.

  • They tallied eight bankruptcies in the oilfield services sector in Q1, a slight uptick over Q4 of 2019 but below Q3 2019 levels.
  • Seven oil-and-gas companies filed for bankruptcy, which is below the prior three quarters.
  • However, their analysis finds that as Q2 begins, "extreme financial pressure is being felt at all levels of the energy industry."
  • Among oilfield services companies, "many smaller or highly leveraged companies may not be able to hold on."

Here are a few more top-line findings from the latest EIA report, which show the effects of the U.S. lockdowns and vastly reduced economic activity stemming from the pandemic.

  • These are all annualized effects, so bear in mind that the near-term impacts are more significant.

By the numbers: EIA sees a 9% annual decline in gasoline consumption this year compared to 2019 (and the current decline is far steeper).

  • Retail electricity sales to the commercial sector are expected to decline by 4.7% year-over-year due to business closures, while factory cutbacks mean sales to the industrial sector fall by 4.2%.
  • Total annual electric power generation is projected to decline by 3%, while generation from coal, which has already been losing market share for years, falls by 20%.
  • Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (which are the lion's share) are projected to fall by 7.5% in 2020, but then rise 3.6% next year.
  • They expect the U.S. to revert back to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products combined in Q3 and remain that way for a while.

But, but, but: There are all kinds of known unknowns, which EIA acknowledges in the latest 2020–2021 outlook.

  • The monthly report is "subject to heightened levels of uncertainty" because COVID-19's effect on energy markets is "still evolving."

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
31 mins ago - Energy & Environment

Carbon emissions are roaring back from COVID-19

Expand chart
Data: IEA Global Energy Review 2021; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global energy-related carbon emissions will surge this year as coal, oil and natural gas consumption return from the pandemic that caused an unprecedented emissions decline, the International Energy Agency estimated Tuesday.

Why it matters: The projected rise of nearly 5% would be the largest since the "carbon intensive" recovery from the financial crisis over a decade ago, IEA said, putting emissions just below their 2019 peak.

54 mins ago - Axios Twin Cities

Jurors resume deliberations as the nation awaits Chauvin verdict

Protesters outside Hennepin County Government Center on the day of closing arguments. Photo: Christopher Mark Juhn/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Jurors in the Derek Chauvin trial resume deliberations Tuesday morning as the nation waits for a verdict.

The latest: The 12 jurors met behind closed doors for about three hours Monday before breaking for the night at 7pm.

John Frank, author of Denver
54 mins ago - Axios Denver

What national marijuana legalization would mean for Colorado

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Colorado's cannabis industry is enjoying an era of prosperity as national attitudes toward marijuana become more relaxed.

Driving the news: 17 states have legalized recreational marijuana sales and pot enjoys its highest popularity ever with 68% of adults backing legalization, according to a recent Gallup poll.