Sep 27, 2019

U.S. GDP growth is returning to its neutral level

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Reproduced from Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Axios Visuals

U.S. economic growth is returning to around the 2% level that economists see as trend or the economy's neutral level, data shows.

By the numbers: Second quarter GDP was unrevised at 2% and estimates for the third and fourth quarters look to be around that level.

  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for the third quarter is 1.9% growth, up from its last estimate of 1.8%, and the New York Fed’s Nowcast model is tracking Q3 at around 2.2%.

Fun fact: If the U.S. Latino population were an independent nation, it would be the 8th largest economy on earth, the third fastest growing economy in the world, and the fastest growing developed market economy, according to the 2019 U.S. Latino GDP Report.

  • "U.S. Latinos account for nearly 30% of America's growth in real income," the study's authors found.

Go deeper: The cost of the "strong" U.S. economy

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The world according to Jerome Powell

Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images. Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The U.S. economy looks good to Jerome Powell.

The big picture: The Fed chairman laid out his rose-colored vision of the country on Tuesday at the National Association for Business Economics conference. The economy is neither too hot nor too cold, inflation is under control, productivity is increasing, the job market is booming and the Fed is not (repeat, not!) engaging in a new quantitative easing program.

Go deeperArrowOct 9, 2019

China's economy grows at slowest pace since 1992

A distribution company outside the container port in Qingdao in east China's Shandong province. Photo:
Barcroft Media / Contributor/Getty Images

China said its economy grew 6% year-over-year in the 3rd quarter — the slowest pace since the 1st quarter of 1992, per the WSJ — as the trade war weighs on the world's 2nd biggest economy.

Why it matters: s: China's economy grew at a slower pace than the 6.1% economists expected and declined from the prior quarter's 6.2% growth rate. China's efforts — including tax cuts and monetary easing — to stave off the trade war's effects and other homegrown issues have so far come up short. And because details surrounding the U.S.-China "partial trade deal" remain unclear, market-watchers are skeptical the cease-fire will provide any relief for the global economy.

Keep ReadingArrowOct 18, 2019

Report: Key global economic indicators hit lowest level since 2016

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Headline economic indicators have hit their lowest levels since spring 2016 as the global economy sinks into a "synchronised stagnation" period, research by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times published Sunday shows.

Why it matters: The Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery research shows weak growth in some major economies and "essentially no growth or even mild contraction" ahead of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., this week — the first with Kristalina Georgieva as the IMF’s new managing director.

Go deeperArrowOct 14, 2019