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A large fracking operation in Loveland, Colorado. Photo: Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post via Getty Images

U.S. crude oil production is expected to surpass 11 million barrels per day late next year, the Energy Information Administration says in its short-term energy outlook.

Why it matters: The forecast, while consistent with rising U.S. output thanks to the shale boom, nonetheless highlights how the U.S. has again become a powerful force in global crude oil markets and a major challenge to big petro-states.

  • As CNBC points out here, the projection that U.S. oil production will average 10.8 million barrels per day next year would put the country's output on par with Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Go deeper: EIA's latest monthly outlook also boosted its 2018 U.S. production forecast to 10.3 million daily barrels. Last month EIA had projected a 2018 average of 9.9 million. Under either case, it would smash the prior annual average record of 9.6 million set in 1970.

  • EIA said most of the projected growth in coming years will come from surging shale production.
  • They see the Permian basin region in Texas and New Mexico accounting for around three quarters of the 1.2 million barrels per day of U.S. growth they see by the end of 2019.
  • Most of the rest comes from the Gulf of Mexico, where a slew of projects are coming online.

Go deeper

Updated 6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Health: Most vulnerable Americans aren't getting enough vaccine information — Fauci says Trump administration's lack of facts on COVID "very likely" cost lives.
  2. Politics: Biden unveils "wartime" COVID strategyBiden's COVID-19 bubble.
  3. Vaccine: Florida requiring proof of residency to get vaccine — CDC extends interval between vaccine doses for exceptional cases.
  4. World: Hong Kong to put tens of thousands on lockdown as cases surge.
  5. Sports: 2021 Tokyo Olympics hang in the balance.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck.

Trump impeachment trial to start week of Feb. 8, Schumer says

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: The Washington Post via Getty

The Senate will begin former President Trump's impeachment trial the week of Feb. 8, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Friday on the Senate floor.

The state of play: Schumer announced the schedule after reaching an agreement with Republicans. The House will transmit the article of impeachment against the former president late Monday.

8 hours ago - Health

CDC extends interval between COVID vaccine doses for exceptional cases

Photo: Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty

Patients can space out the two doses of the coronavirus vaccine by up to six weeks if it’s "not feasible" to follow the shorter recommended window, according to updated guidance from the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention.

Driving the news: With the prospect of vaccine shortages and a low likelihood that supply will expand before April, the latest changes could provide a path to vaccinate more Americans — a top priority for President Biden.