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Data: The Conference Board and University of Michigan; Chart: Axios Visuals

The continued bright spot in global economic data has been the solid state of U.S. consumers. Unemployment is low, and consumers are confident and continue to spend freely, providing a major buoy for the rest of the economy.

What they're saying: "Trade, as important as it is, and as many headlines as it engenders, is 3-4% of GDP. Personal consumption is closer to 70% of GDP. And as long as the labor market is strong, wages are OK, and we’re in a non-inflationary environment, the consumer keeps spending," Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, says in an email.

  • “It’s good to remind one’s self about what the fundamental, underlying drivers of the economy are," Clemons said.

Of note: Both major readings of U.S. consumer confidence remain at elevated levels.

  • However, the University of Michigan survey has been trending lower since May when the U.S.-China trade war began to escalate.
  • The Conference Board's survey has remained near historic highs, with a measure of how consumers view their present situation at the highest since just before the 2000 dot-com bubble crash.

The bottom line: “The trade disputes are like waves crashing on the shore. The economic tide, driven by personal consumption, is still coming in," Clemons adds. "The risks of recession are way overstated, given the strength of the consumer."

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell talks to reporters on Capitol Hill last Thursday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

With President Trump planning to nominate his third Supreme Court justice nominee this week, key Republican senators are indicating their stance on replacing the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg with less than 50 days until Election Day.

The state of play: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has vowed that "Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate." Two GOP senators — Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) — have said they oppose holding a vote before the election, meaning that two more defections would force McConnell to delay until at least the lame-duck session of Congress.

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Biden to Senate GOP after RBG passing: "Please follow your conscience"

Joe Biden made a direct appeal to Senate Republicans in a speech addressing the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, urging them to "cool the flames that have been engulfing our country" by waiting to confirm her replacement until after the election.

The state of play: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said soon after the news of Ginsburg's death that President Trump's nominee would get a vote on the Senate floor.